The Geopolitical Ecosystem in Turmoil – Autocrats and Wackos

Breakfast with Bwana

By Anil Madan

There must be something in the ether. It is too far a stretch to suggest that the autocrats of the world have suddenly decided to let loose their wacky impulses. Kim Jong Nuke of North Korea may be the wackiest of them all. His forces have detonated parts of the Gyeongui and Donghae roads north of the military demarcation line. Those are roads in his own country.

Kim Jong Nuke has declared South Korea as the “main enemy.” Following that declaration, his forces have fortified the border with South Korea, laid more mines and positioned nuclear capable missiles. After South Korea and the US conducted joint military exercises, Pyongyang announced that it would block all roads and railways connecting the two countries.

Geopolitical Ecosystem. Pic  – Shutterstock

North Korea is reportedly sending troops to fight in Ukraine alongside fellow autocrat Putin’s troops. U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell said that the US and its allies are alarmed by Kim Jong Un’s ongoing nuclear threats and by North Korea’s shipments of artillery and missiles, to Russia.

Putin’s craziness continues apace as Russia launched one of its largest drone salvos of more than 135 drones at Ukraine in recent months. Meanwhile, the Biden administration announced a $425 million package of aid to Ukraine to assist with its defense against Russian attacks. This aid package involves mostly defensive systems.

Meanwhile, President Zelenskiy is set to present his “victory plan” to the European Union and NATO, seeking eventual membership in NATO and significantly increased military support for his country’s battle to repel Russia’s invasion. Zelenskiy continues to press for permission to use weapons supplied by Western countries to strike deep inside Russia. So far, long-range use of such weapons has not been authorized by the US and EU countries. The reception to this so-called victory plan is decidedly muted. As I wrote when Russia’s war against Ukraine started, support from the US, and European countries was restrained, as they appeared to lend credence to Russia’s nuclear threats if they went too far in aiding Ukraine. Support continues muted as the US and European allies seem unwilling to allow Ukraine to strike deep into Russia and make Putin pay a price for his aggression.

So, Russia’s war against Ukraine continues unabated. Putin and his acolytes continually threaten Ukraine and the world with the use of nuclear options, whether it is tactical nuclear weapons or hypersonic missiles that threaten to reach the US mainland.

Then there is Xi Jinping of China. On the one hand, he claims that Taiwan is an integral part of China. On the other hand, he regularly conducts military exercises designed to threaten and intimidate Taiwan.

Just this week China conducted large-scale military drills around Taiwan in what it said was a warning to “independence forces” in Taiwan, and also characterized them as “punishment” drills against President Lai Ching-te whom it characterized as a separatist and troublemaker.

And what was Lai’s crime? Why, he said that China had no right to represent the self-ruling democracy and its 23 million people. He offered to work with China to address global challenges such as climate change.

But autocrats have little interest in solving problems that afflict the world. They specialize in exacerbating divisions and creating more problems.

Speaking of creating more problems, the autocrats of Iran weighed in once again by launching another missile and drone attack on Israel. The Israeli military estimated that at least 180 missiles were fired by Iran at targets in Israeli territory. Most were intercepted and rendered harmless by Israel’s defense forces.

Israel has, of course, vowed to retaliate against Iran. And Iran is undeterred in making more threats. Major General Mohammad Bagheri, Iran’s military chief projected ostensible restraint when he described Iran’s missile attack on Israel as limited to military targets. He issued a counter warning of broader strikes if Israel should respond.

Boasting that: “We had the capability to attack the regime’s economic infrastructure, but we only targeted military bases,” he added a warning: “If the Zionist regime is not controlled and takes action against Iran, we will target all of its infrastructure.”

Reports abound that President Biden has urged Israel not to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities or its oil refineries. It is unlikely that Israel can afflict enough damage on Iran’s nuclear facilities given that aircraft carrying bombs do not have the range to fly from Israel to Iran, drop a payload, and return to base without refuelling. It is highly unlikely, absent some clandestine arrangement, that any of Iran’s Arab neighbours will sanction Israel’s overflights, let alone provide refuelling support. Destruction of Iran’s oil facilities risk destabilizing the world’s oil markets and fuelling inflation which finally seems to be abating. Israeli attacks on Iran’s arms, drone, and missile production facilities seems a useful exercise if they can be carried out successfully.

The autocrats of this quartet have faltering economies in common. China, to be sure, is still growing, but at a significantly slower pace than in recent years. Sanctions have affected North Korea, Iran, and Russia, although it is clear that each has managed to work around sanctions with the aid of the other three and some other countries.

It is not just the autocrats who create confusion and turmoil. Seemingly sensible democracies also do.

In 2023, a diplomatic brouhaha erupted between Canada and India when Prime Minister Trudeau accused India of involvement in the assassination of a Canadian citizen Hardeep Singh Nijjar who had advocated for a separatist Sikh state carved out of India. In what has been described as a spectacular escalation, the Canadian federal police announced that it had credible and irrefutable evidence of the involvement of agents of the Government of India in serious criminal activities in Canada, as well as of clandestine intelligence gathering and interfering in Canada’s democratic processes.

India dismissed the charges. Canadian Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly, had asked India to waive the diplomatic immunity of six Indian officials, including the ambassador, so that they could be questioned about violent incidents in which members of the Sikh community were targeted. India refused to waive immunity and Canada sent an expulsion notice. India claimed that the officials have been recalled. Now, each country has expelled the other’s diplomats.

India has denied interfering in Canada’s democratic elections. So, are Canada’s charges valid, or is India correct in rejecting them? The US State Department has weighed in on Canada’s side. “We have made clear that the Canadian allegations are extremely serious, and they need to be taken seriously, and we wanted to see the Government of India cooperate with Canada and its investigation. But India has chosen an alternate path…,” US Department of State Spokesperson Matthew Miller said.

And finally, the US, presidential election remains too close to call as signs of Trump’s dementia and wackiness abound as his unhinged behaviour dominates each appearance. Earlier this week, he abruptly ended a question-and-answer period during a campaign event, called for the playing of Luciano Pavarotti singing Ave Maria, and followed that with requests for other tunes, while he swayed for 39 minutes before the crowd.

He has threatened to use the US National Guard and if necessary, the military, against his perceived enemies. His Vice-Presidential running mate and other supporters seem oblivious to his falsehoods and unhinged comments. Recently, Governor Glenn Youngkin denied that Trump had threatened to use the military against American citizens, even as Trump’s words were read to him.

Former US Ambassador to the European Union Gordon Sondland, who has been a megadonor to the Republicans and the Trump campaign, said that after the January 6 insurrection at the US Capitol, he was done with Trump. Now, he has changed his mind. When pressed about Trump’s comment that he would be a dictator on Day One, Sondland responded: “Absolutely not – that’s not what he’s actually saying. He engages in this hyperbole, and I’m not going to explain or defend every one of his utterances. What I can tell you when he says things like, for example, I’m going to solve the Ukraine-Russia problem in 24 hours – of course he’s not going to resolve it in 24 hours. But what he’s saying, really, is this is going to get resolved quickly. I’m going to essentially beat the [expletive] out of both sides to come to an understanding and make that war go away. That’s what he’s really saying.”

Asked if he knew when Trump was lying and when truthful, Sondland said: “I don’t believe he’s lying. I believe he loves hyperbole. He’s a New York real estate developer. That’s in the DNA.”

There is something in the ether and it has seeped into the DNA around the world.

Cheerz…
Bwana

Mauritius Times ePaper Friday 18 October 2024