The Arab-Israel Coalition Against Hamas

Breakfast with Bwana

By Anil Madan

Back in 2014, in an email to a friend explaining my perception of the Israeli position on a two-state solution, an undivided Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, and Gaza, I wrote: “Israel is for a two-state solution – one state makes no sense. But they feel they must get the Palestinians out of Jerusalem. And perhaps out of Gaza too – much too valuable as a casino development, seaside resort, and condo and high-rise center with serious offshore gas assets.”

How things have changed. Israeli PM Netanyahu who at one time suggested that he might find a Palestinian state acceptable so long as it was not armed and therefore incapable of attacking Israel, reversed course and adopted the views of the extreme right-wing members of his coalition government who oppose a separate Palestinian state. Now, with President Trump’s latest 20-point peace plan, the idea of a two-state solution has been resurrected, and Netanyahu has once again switched. Is this a serious proposal, or one designed to get the Qataris, Saudis, Egyptians and Jordanians as well as Arab countries on board to support the Trumpian approach? And perhaps, to give Hamas’s leaders cover for agreeing to anything with Netanyahu’s government, as they try to save themselves from ongoing air attacks and targeted killings?

Eleven years ago, my friend responded that my comment about the development of Gaza was facetious. Today, with President Trump having floated the idea of developing Gaza into the Riviera of the Middle East and once again stating in his peace plan that “New Gaza will be fully committed to building a prosperous economy and to peaceful coexistence with their neighbours,” perhaps my comment will seem prescient.

No, back then I wasn’t being facetious about the development of Gaza. I just never believed that with Hamas in charge, there was any realistic prospect of peace with Israel. But how to get Hamas out of the mix? The attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, gave Israel licence to attack Hamas head on. This is something I predicted just a few days after that attack. Of course, I didn’t expect that the Israeli onslaught would continue virtually unabated for two years and that Hamas would last this long. I have long believed that most prejudice stems from economic disparities. And conversely, exploiting economic opportunity for the mutual benefit of opposing parties often offers a glide path to resolving differences. The development of Gaza is that economic opportunity. It is also the impetus that gives Israel the glide path to escape from the trap of being charged with genocide and war crimes.

In the past, I have commented that it has always been a great surprise to me that Israel did not build homes, factories, schools and universities for the Palestinians so that they could lead productive lives and have something to lose. Hamas’s message has been that they have nothing to lose, and the Gazan population bought that message with horrific consequences as we have seen.

It is not just Israel that needs an exit. In 2023, I wrote to another friend, and once again mentioned the development of Gaza:

As for Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, I am sorry, but they don’t give a damn about the Palestinians either. Increasingly, in the geopolitical matrix, the Palestinians of the West Bank and Gaza have become more of a burden than these countries want. They see the need to deal with the Iranian threat, with climate change, and with economic imperatives that necessarily implicate Israel if they are going to maintain goodwill and constructive relations with the U.S., Britain, and the EU. India too is on board as are Australia, Japan, Singapore, Vietnam, and Indonesia.

Russia is a weakening power and an embarrassment to the world and Xi Jinping’s stature in the Middle East is not a major factor except perhaps with Iran.

When push comes to shove, the pressure to reach a comprehensive settlement involving all the Middle Eastern countries that matter (excepting Iran) will be irrepressible and the engagement of those I have mentioned will be seen as a counterweight to ongoing Israeli repression. Of course, that is the prelude to a two-state solution in which the Palestinian state is not armed, but one that is generally dependent and reliant on Israel and Egypt. Remember that the Gazan waterfront presents enormous opportunities for development of resorts, casinos, and the like. And there is natural gas offshore.

Put in this context, the peace proposal offers an exit ramp for the Arab and Muslim countries — not including Iran — and for the U.S. When Trump got Netanyahu to apologize to the Emir of Qatar for the attack on Doha, that set the stage. One can now understand that the major Arab countries, Gulf States, and Egypt no longer want Hamas to be the dog that wags the tail of Middle East politics.

With indirect negotiations underway between Hamas and Israel through intermediaries in Egypt, Trump announced that both had signed on to at least the first phase of the proposal. He posted a statement on his social media site:

“I am very proud to announce that Israel and Hamas have both signed off on the first Phase of our Peace Plan. This means that ALL of the Hostages will be released very soon, and Israel will withdraw their Troops to an agreed upon line as the first steps toward a Strong, Durable, and Everlasting Peace. All Parties will be treated fairly! This is a GREAT Day for the Arab and Muslim World, Israel, all surrounding Nations, and the United States of America, and we thank the mediators from Qatar, Egypt, and Turkey, who worked with us to make this Historic and Unprecedented Event happen. BLESSED ARE THE PEACEMAKERS!”

Trump had given Hamas a deadline, but any deadline will de facto be soft since no one realistically expects Hamas to swallow the whole plan, hook, line and sinker. And, of course, there are details to be worked out between Israel and Hamas and as well with the Palestinian Authority.

Those curious can read the twenty points of the peace plan. Some highlights include:

* a commitment that no one will be forced to leave Gaza and those who wish to leave will be free to do so and free to return.

* Hamas and other factions agree to not have any role in the governance of Gaza, directly, indirectly, or in any form. All military, terror, and offensive infrastructure, including tunnels and weapon production facilities, will be destroyed and not rebuilt.

* There will be a process of demilitarization of Gaza under the supervision of independent monitors, which will include placing weapons permanently beyond use through an agreed process of decommissioning, and supported by an internationally funded buy back and reintegration program all verified by the independent monitors.

* The United States will work with Arab and international partners to develop a temporary International Stabilization Force (ISF) to immediately deploy in Gaza. This force will be the long-term internal security solution.

* Israel will not occupy or annex Gaza. As the ISF establishes control and stability, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) will withdraw based on standards, milestones, and timeframes.

Some questions arise. How realistic it is for people to stay? Given that most of Gaza has been reduced to rubble, it is difficult to say. How willing is Hamas to give up control and power? Perhaps safe passage for Hamas leaders will be sufficient incentive. But safe passage to where? And what of the prisoners that Israel will release? Where will they go? Perhaps they won’t have a choice, but it’s difficult to imagine any wanting to settle in Gaza’s rubble without food and water.

The idea of the ISF led by Arab and Muslim nations is intriguing if only because it shows how willing they are to reject and abandon Hamas. As I wrote back in October 2023, Hamas had made a massive miscalculation. The pigeons are coming home to roost.

Finally, note that the plan says nothing about Israel’s occupation of the West Bank. Ultimately, if there is going to be a Palestinian state, it must include the West Bank or a substitute. Other than Jordan and Sinai, there are few alternatives.

We shall see.

Cheerz…
Bwana

Mauritius Times ePaper Friday 10 October 2025