Riding the Next Wave

Editorial

For half a century, Mauritius has been regarded as one of Africa’s economic success stories. It escaped dependence on sugar cane to build a diversified economy based on textiles, tourism, financial services and technology. Through adaptability and forward-looking policies, it became an upper-middle-income country. But the economic model that delivered this success is losing momentum.

The World Bank’s report, ‘Riding the Next Wave: Rewiring Institutions, Infrastructure, and Incentives’, released on 6 October 2026, delivers a timely warning. Without significant structural reforms, real GDP growth could fall from an estimated 3.2% in 2025 to just 1.2% by 2050. Mauritius is not facing imminent economic collapse, but it risks a prolonged period of slower growth, fewer opportunities for young people and mounting pressure on public finances as the population ages.

The message is clear: Mauritius must move beyond the economic policies of the past and rethink how it generates growth, creates jobs and sustains prosperity.

Diagnosing the problem

Mauritius’s past success rested on investment, an expanding workforce and access to export markets. Today, these advantages are weakening. Private consumption accounts for a large share of economic activity, while investment and export performance need renewed momentum.

Demographic change presents a particularly serious challenge. The population is ageing, the workforce is under pressure and many educated young Mauritians seek opportunities abroad. At the presentation of the World Bank report, Minister of Financial Services and Economic Planning Jyoti Jeetun noted that achieving the country’s long-term objectives could require between 400,000 and 500,000 workers over the next quarter-century. Meeting future labour needs will therefore be essential to maintaining production, tax revenues and the sustainability of pensions and public services.

Mauritius is also failing to make full use of its human potential. Women continue to face barriers to employment, including caregiving responsibilities and limited access to affordable childcare. At the same time, there is a mismatch between the skills acquired through education and those demanded by employers, particularly in areas such as artificial intelligence, data science and specialised engineering.

Bureaucratic delays, cumbersome procedures, infrastructure bottlenecks and high energy costs further undermine business competitiveness. These weaknesses cannot be addressed through isolated measures. They require a coordinated programme of economic and institutional reform.

The World Bank’s prescription

The report identifies four interconnected areas where change is needed.

First, public institutions must become more efficient. Government should lead by example by replacing paper-heavy procedures with digital services, measuring public-sector performance through results rather than expenditure, and selecting infrastructure projects according to their economic and social returns. Better administration would reduce delays, improve service delivery and make more effective use of public resources.

Second, competition and business incentives must improve. Mauritius needs an environment in which efficient and innovative businesses can grow. This requires strengthening the competition framework, ensuring that state-owned enterprises operate fairly alongside private businesses, and reducing unnecessary barriers to new firms, particularly in digital and technology-enabled services. Greater competition can encourage innovation, improve productivity and offer consumers better value.

Third, infrastructure and technology need modernising. As an island economy dependent on international trade, Mauritius cannot afford inefficient supply chains. Port facilities must be improved, energy infrastructure strengthened and reliable, affordable, greener power made available. Small and medium-sized enterprises should also receive practical support to adopt digital technologies and improve their productivity.

Fourth, the country must mobilise its human resources. Affordable childcare, flexible working arrangements and greater pay transparency could help more women enter employment. Education and training must better reflect changing economic needs, with greater emphasis on critical thinking, problem-solving and digital literacy. Mauritius must also have an open national discussion on immigration to address labour shortages while taking account of social cohesion and pressure on housing.

The potential benefits are substantial. The World Bank’s modelling suggests that coordinated reforms could raise GDP by an additional 5.15% by 2035 and 6.7% by 2050, while generating approximately 4,400 additional net jobs. These are projections, not guaranteed outcomes. Much will depend on the quality and consistency of implementation.

Vision 2050 meets Riding the Next Wave

The World Bank’s report complements Vision 2050, the long-term development blueprint presented by the Ministry of Economic Planning and Financial Services. While Vision 2050 sets out where Mauritius hopes to be over the next 25 years, Riding the Next Wave identifies reforms that could help the country get there.

However, a vision risks remaining a collection of aspirations without concrete policies, clear responsibilities and effective implementation. Equally, the World Bank’s recommendations will have limited impact if they are treated merely as external advice rather than incorporated into a national development agenda that citizens understand and support.

It might be necessary therefore to bring together the two frameworks in a single action plan, with measurable targets, assigned responsibilities, realistic deadlines and regular public progress reports. Citizens must be able to see what is being done, who is responsible and whether commitments are being met.

Political will and public ownership

Publishing reports and announcing reforms are relatively easy. Changing established practices and institutions is much harder. Mauritius’s challenge is not simply to identify what needs to be done, but to develop the political will and institutional capacity to do it.

Economic restructuring can disrupt existing arrangements. Businesses accustomed to limited competition may resist changes, while public officers and workers must adapt to new technologies and working practices. If reforms are perceived as measures imposed from above or as cuts that disregard people’s welfare, public resistance could undermine their implementation.

The government must therefore make economic transformation a shared national undertaking. Productivity gains should translate into better wages, improved working conditions and better public services. Small businesses and workers affected by change should have access to appropriate retraining, financial assistance where necessary and digital skills development.

Clear communication is equally important. Citizens need to understand not only what reforms are proposed, but why they are necessary, how they will affect everyday life and what benefits they can reasonably expect. Public consultation and transparent reporting can help build trust and encourage people to take ownership of the development agenda.

Continuity beyond electoral cycles

Transforming education, modernising ports, digitising public administration and responding to demographic change require sustained effort over many years. These objectives extend well beyond a five-year electoral cycle.

Mauritius cannot afford to abandon long-term priorities every time a new government takes office. The experience of countries such as Singapore illustrates the value of maintaining a consistent focus on education, infrastructure, skills and competitiveness, while adapting policies as circumstances change.

Mauritius should seek a broad national consensus on its fundamental development objectives. Parliamentary scrutiny, independent monitoring and transparent implementation plans could help preserve continuity across successive administrations. Political parties may disagree on how best to achieve national goals, but they should strive to maintain progress on agreed priorities.

Continuity does not mean that policies must never change. It means that decisions should be guided by evidence, experience and the national interest, rather than by the desire of each new administration to distance itself from its predecessor.

The moment of truth

Mauritius faces an important choice. It can continue relying on an economic model that is losing momentum, risking slower growth and fewer opportunities for future generations, or it can undertake the reforms needed to build a more productive, competitive and inclusive economy.

Riding the Next Wave and Vision 2050 provide a basis for charting that future. But reports alone cannot transform a country. Success requires political leadership, effective institutions, public trust and a commitment to implementation that survives changes of government.

Ultimately, Mauritius’s future will depend not on how many development plans it produces, but on its ability to turn their recommendations into measurable results. The task is to make economic transformation a shared national project, supported by citizens and sustained by successive governments.

Mauritius Times ePaper Friday 9 October 2026