Geopolitics of the Indian Ocean: The End of Strategic Illusion — A Small Island State in an Age of Fracture

Books

By Patrice Curé
Former Career Ambassador of Mauritius

I read Vijay Makhan’s book last week with keen interest. I sought a chat with him over its contents among other matters of interest. The conversation provided me with the opportunity to appreciate what motivated the publication which is very timely. It analyses and responds to the critical issues that face our region.

The Indian Ocean is undergoing a profound geopolitical transformation. Once viewed chiefly as a maritime space connecting regions, it is increasingly emerging as one of the arenas in which the future international order may be shaped.

Competition among major powers, India’s expanding maritime role, Africa’s renewed geopolitical importance, instability in the Middle East and the contest over critical sea lanes are changing the regional landscape. Economic, technological and security concerns are also becoming more closely intertwined.

These developments form the central thread of Vijay Makhan’s latest book: ‘Geopolitics of the Indian Ocean — The End of Strategic Illusion: A Small Island State in an Age of Fracture’. Drawing on more than five decades in national and international diplomacy, Makhan examines their implications from the perspective of Mauritius and other small states navigating an increasingly fragmented and uncertain world.

Three themes run through the work. The first is the return of geopolitics and the erosion of assumptions that shaped the post-Cold War period, including confidence in multilateralism, international law and strategic predictability. Geography may confer access and opportunity, but position alone does not guarantee influence.

The second is the growing strategic importance of the Indian Ocean, where geopolitical, economic, environmental and security concerns increasingly converge. The Chagos Archipelago saga brings these themes into sharp focus: it shows how the unfinished work of decolonisation, international law and strategic power converge in the experience of a small state. From the ICJ’s 2019 Advisory Opinion and the UN General Assembly resolution of 22 May 2019 to the UK–Mauritius Agreement of 22 May 2025, the book traces a long diplomatic struggle and the continuing challenge of translating international recognition into a durable settlement.

The third theme is the need for Mauritius and other small states to strengthen resilience, strategic awareness and long-term preparedness. The book also resists the idea that smallness is destiny. Small states retain agency, but that agency has to be prepared and exercised — through sustained diplomacy, regional and multilateral partnerships, legal consistency and a clear understanding of national interests.

For Mauritius, this requires a broad strategic outlook encompassing maritime governance, environmental stewardship, the blue economy, food and energy resilience, cybersecurity, technological adaptation, regional diplomacy and long-term planning. The discussion of CAMPA (Chagos Archipelago Marine Protected Area) gives ocean stewardship a practical dimension: it is an environmental responsibility and part of Mauritius’s wider role as an ocean state.

The work concludes with a Strategic Roadmap proposing practical directions for strengthening national resilience and positioning Mauritius more effectively within the evolving Indian Ocean environment. It offers both an analysis of the present moment and a framework for considering the country’s choices ahead.

Given the breadth of the subject, some themes invite further exploration, particularly the institutional arrangements through which Mauritius could translate strategic awareness into sustained national capacity, and the changing regional security environment. As the Indian Ocean continues to evolve, a future study by the author could return to these questions and consider how they are reshaping the choices available to Mauritius and other small states.

At the heart of the book is a clear proposition: Mauritius must think like an ocean state, not merely an island economy.

Makhan invites readers to consider how developments across the Indian Ocean will shape Mauritius’s future—and how prepared the country is to understand and engage with those realities. The opportunity is there. One has to recognise it and act in time to seize it.

A must read for policy and decision-makers, diplomats and students of international relations, among others.

Mauritius Times ePaper Friday 9 October 2026