The Iran War: A Potential Triangular Choke Emerges

Breakfast with Bwana

By Anil Madan

The political effluvium of the sensational dressing-down that Ukraine’s President Zelensky suffered at the hands of President Trump and VP Vance at the White House last year, still lingers in the ether. The stinging words, laced with seeming truth still echo: “You don’t have the cards right now…”

It appears that the Iran war and Putin’s war on Ukraine are converging and Zelensky may have cards. The question is whether Trump wants to play the hand or fold.

Ukraine War meets Iran War? How the two global conflicts are colliding. Pic – Firstpost

Last Friday, the White House confirmed that Trump and Zelensky would meet in Washington the following Tuesday, July 28. Zelensky was scheduled to attend the funeral of Senator Lindsey Graham.

Zelensky then stated:

I will instruct the intelligence services to share with our partners the information we have about Russia’s new assistance to the Iranian regime. Since the beginning of July, we’ve been tracking active satellite surveillance by Russia over the Gulf countries and the American military facilities there. These images then end up in Iran. And there’s a clear correlation between Russian satellite images of targets and Iranian strikes – both before the attacks and after, to assess the damage caused. Just on July 19 and 20, four airbases fell into the area of interest for Russian satellites: two in Bahrain and one each in Jordan and Kuwait. It’s obvious why. We all around the world should not close our eyes to a very simple fact: evil always looks for ways to make things worse and spread. Russia must be stopped. The war must be stopped. Pressure on the aggressor must work.  

On the same day, Friday, in an apparent response to Zelensky’s claim, Trump posted this on his Truth Social outlet:

President Xi, at our recent meeting in Beijing, China, told me that he would not, under any circumstances, give or sell Weapons to the Islamic Republic of Iran — And that statement included Chinese Companies. Considering our relationship, I take him at his word and, besides, l am doing him very big favors, also. Likewise, President Putin, despite the horrible War going on in Ukraine (The relationship remains, as it does with President Zelenskyy), told me that he would not sell Weapons to Iran. He understands that I do not sell Weapons to Ukraine, but to NATO Countries. They pay full price, and how those Weapons are distributed, I have no idea. Therefore, two major Countries that people speak of often in terms of Iran are, in my opinion, not participating. If they did, it would be very bad for them — Certainly not in their best interests. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP

Despite having dismissed the idea that China or Russia were “participating” in aiding Iran, on the following Monday, July 27, Trump said that his administration would investigate Zelensky’s claim that Russia had passed images of American military bases to Iran and had been helping Iran strike military targets belonging to the US and Gulf states. Trump’s somewhat peculiar approach was: “Well, we’ll find out if that’s true. I’ll ask Putin about it. But even if they did, it had no impact whatsoever.” The president added that he doubted such cooperation could have occurred at a high level.

Trump pooh-poohed the significance of Russian assistance to Iran. “They don’t have an army, they don’t have an air force, they don’t have a navy, they don’t have anything,” Trump said. “So, it didn’t work.”

Zelensky’s information was quite specific. He pointed out that Russian surveillance by satellites had homed in on four airbases in the Gulf on July 19 and 20. Two bases in Bahrain, and a base in Jordan and another in Kuwait were the targets. Zelensky noted that the timing left little doubt about the reason for the surveillance. And Zelensky allowed that Ukraine had recorded the active Russian satellite surveillance.

Zelensky charged that Russian satellite imagery of American military assets in the Gulf was used by Iran to target strikes as well as for damage assessment after strikes.

Zelensky’s charges should not have been news to President Trump. First, it is inconceivable that Israeli and US intelligence have not been monitoring Russian surveillance and Iranian targeting.

Second, more than four months ago, in mid-March, the Wall Street Journal reported that “Russia has been expanding its intelligence sharing and military cooperation with Iran, providing satellite imagery and improved drone technology to aid Tehran’s targeting of US forces in the region.”

The Journal postulated that Russia was trying to “prolong a war benefitting Russia militarily and economically.”

Russia is said to have provided technology to Iran including components of modified Shahed drones with improved communication, navigation and targeting. Russia has grown a knowledge base from its experience using drones in attacking Ukraine. Russian cooperation with Iran appears to involve tactical guidance on optimizing drone targeting and usage and, as well, targeting locations of US military forces in the Middle East. Of greater concern are reports that Russia is sending upgraded drones to Iran.

Russian assistance has been key to successful Iranian strikes in Jordan, Bahrain, Kuwait and Oman.

It is not clear what Mr Trump hopes to gain from confronting Putin about Russian aid to Iran. Putin is likely to deny everything. The US has no interest in engaging with Russia in a direct conflict. Trump’s only option would be to reinstate sanctions and once again strangle Russia’s economy.

As has been well documented, Iran supplied Russia with Shahed drones. Putin evolved that relationship into domestic Russian manufacturing of Shahed-type drones. It has been reported that Russia was preparing to supply Iran with 5,000 short-range drones equipped with fiber-optic control systems, as well as train Iran’s forces against US forces. The Economist reported that Russia also planned to send an unspecified number of long-range drones using satellite guidance technology to Iran.

Compounding matters, Ukraine has also charged that Russia has provide satellite intelligence and military assistance on Israeli energy targets.

A war getting more complex

Given these developments, the Iran war is getting ever more complex.

On Saturday, Ukraine destroyed an Iranian cargo ship in the Caspian Sea with a long-range drone. President Zelensky declared that Ukrainian forces had achieved “very good results” with long-range strikes against vessels transporting Iran-origin military cargo to Russia.

Iran confirmed the strike by Ukraine accusing the latter of “an act of aggression that could further inflame and expand the flames of war” and insisted that its ship was a commercial vessel. Then Iran issued a customary threat of retaliation.

Ukraine’s Foreign Minister was not impressed and dismissive: “Iran’s threats are unjustified and groundless,” He went on to make a direct accusation: “The regime in Tehran is a direct accomplice to Russian aggression against Ukraine, fuelling Moscow’s criminal war with weapons that have killed Ukrainians since 2022.”

The ceasefire between the US and Iran, such as it was, is no more. The Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) rapidly disintegrated into a memorandum of misunderstanding as I predicted.

Many observers have declared Iran the winner in the showdown with Israel and the US The thesis was that all Iran had to do to win was survive.

But that is a naïve view. To be sure, the MoU was poorly worded, even carelessly so and the sloppiness gave Iran way too much room to claim concessions that perhaps were not intended. Instead of leaving things as they were and taking advantage, the Iranians made the mistake of pressing too hard. This led Trump to disavow the MoU and then Iran as well declared it dead.

Iran’s regime needs more than just survival to claim victory. The country has been devastated by the aerial bombardment already inflicted and with the resumption of what could be full-scale hostilities, things could get worse. By all reports, despite the temporary reprieve that allowed oil shipments, the economy is in a shambles. Survival for those at the top of the current regime is, obviously, an existential problem. If they were displaced, a significant percentage of Iran’s populace would tear them limb from limb. They need to retain control of the administrative and police apparatus of the state to remain in power. And that requires a functioning economy.

What is unknown is how much missile and drone capacity Iran retains and how much of that is readily deployable in the Gulf and against US assets.

Iran has rejected efforts to strip away its claims to the right to control the Strait of Hormuz and to extort payment from ships for safe passage. Iran rejected a proposal by Oman for a sharing arrangement on equal terms, insisting on usurping a controlling position.

Now that Iran launched an attack while Netanyahu and Zelensky were in Washington for the late Senator Graham’s funeral, and retaliatory strikes by the US are underway as I write this, the course of this war is very much an unknown.

An Unwinnable War

Iran cannot win a war against the US. The damage that US forces can inflict is immense.  But perhaps we shouldn’t think of this as a war of Iran against the US. Rather, viewing this as a war of Iran against the Gulf countries, Iran’s ability to inflict damage on them and on US assets in the Middle East are difficult to quantify. And that difficulty is cause for concern. There are reports that US intelligence agencies assess that Iran has retained a significant part of its drone and missile launch capability. If the reports of advanced technology drone shipments from Russia are true, the situation will be in even more flux.

We have seen that Iran’s threats to shipping are sufficient to all but shut down the Strait of Hormuz and that the Houthis are threatening to shut down the Bab-al-Mandeb Strait which would effectively shut down shipping traffic to the Red Sea.

Adding to these is a report that there has been a drone strike on a US-owned gas storage tanker at the Egyptian port of Damietta. There are conflicting reports from a maritime security firm and several news outlets that a drone strike was involved, whereas the Egyptian Ministry of Petroleum and Mineral Resources officially denied that drones were involved, and asserted that the fire did not affect port infrastructure.

If it turns out that Iran, or one of its proxies, has successfully attacked an Egyptian port with a drone, this puts the Suez Canal under threat. A look at the map of the Middle East shows that closing Hormuz, Bab Al-Mandeb, and the Suez Canal would be a triangular choking of virtually all shipping into and out of the Middle East.

Cheerz…
Bwana

Mauritius Times ePaper Friday 31 July 2026