When will the real rains come?

Thoughts & Reflections

By Dr R Neerunjun Gopee

In truth nobody knows with 100% certainty. One can only make projections, not predictions, about the weather, i.e. probabilistic estimates based on a literal slew of variables that keep changing from moment to moment. After all, that is why they are called variables I suppose!  And a seemingly minimal change in one can have a major impact. For example, I’ve read that when a cyclone is forming over the ocean, a half a degree Celsius change on the surface of the latter can influence the cyclone’s behaviour in a major way, and thus mess up any attempt at ‘predicting’ the course or size or wind speed or amount of rains associated with it, etc.

To cap it all, not all variables are known, the ‘unknown unknowns’, to use an expression popularised by US Secretary of State Donald Rumsfeld during the Iraq war. And as we know, the more that science advances, the more we realise that there may well be more such unknown unknowns waiting around the bend as it were. They are a complicating factor that add to the ‘known knowns’ and the ‘unknown knowns’ and make the limit of probability recede further.

Pity our meteo forecasters, for they have a very hard, risky task.

And to blame them for not ‘predicting’ a flash flood is indeed a most ungrateful expectation. This is what happened several years ago, in 2013 I think, when Port Louis was hit by a sudden mega-downpour that filled up the manmade Caudan basin with such a speed that people were caught unawares and had to run for their lives. A number of them unfortunately couldn’t get away in time and were drowned. Others watched helplessly as the water rose up to dangerous levels in the underground parking and on the streets as they tried to scurry to safety, unsure where they were placing their next steps.

The then director of the Meteorological Services was forced to step down in what was later widely perceived to be a politically motivated coup. The irony is that there is some similarity between ‘predicting’ electoral poll results and the weather. How many times have we seen, around the world which includes our dot-size island, that the psephologists – magicians who juggle with factors influencing polls – have gone wrong, with the exact opposite of their predicted outcome taking place! And yet no politician has ever blamed them or forced them out of a job.

Anywhere in the world, who can predict the actual –– at a given time and place – weather, let alone of such a phenomenon as a flash flood. At best one can make an estimate of the condition(s) in a certain zone or region, but to do so for a micro-mini area like a city in an equally puny size of land like Mauritius??

One must be daft, really out of one’s mind, to entertain such a feat. In the case of the Caudan flash flood, on the spur of the moment no one had given any thought to the multitude of factors – all due to human activity – that later were found to have contributed to the flooding. Such as all manner of solid waste thrown into the main canal running through Port Louis that drains into the sea, and that got clogged as a result; the extensive betonisation that the city had undergone over the years; inept planning of underground parking; the elimination of the undergrowth on the flanks of the surrounding hills and elevated areas by unbridled and unregulated age constructions that left paved or tarred lanes in between the houses, such that these lanes became rivers of rain water that flowed straight on to the highway and in turn became torrents furiously making their way to Caudan lying at the lower, sea level.

Increasingly, over the years, we have seen not only flash floods but other catastrophes such as earthquakes and droughts, cyclones, forest fires and extremes of cold weather creating havoc in major parts of countries across all continents. And all countries, large and small, advanced as well as underdeveloped and developing, have fallen victim to them. Floods in the Arabian deserts and in the Death Valley of California! Just a few days ago, not less than 200 earthquakes took place in a few hours in the Greek island of Santorini, forcing people to flee. As if that was not enough, there followed a volcanic eruption!

And so, when are we going to get the much-needed rains that we may soon be dying for if they don’t come! And once again, there is no saying when and where around the island they will come. Not even in Curepipe, which is notorious for its la grande saison de petites pluies and la petite saison de grandes pluies! – (literally: ‘the long season of light rains, the short season of heavy rains’.

In fact, one could say that if there is any pattern at all, it’s that there is no pattern! Sometimes the rain falls here, sometimes there; sometimes the sky darkens and one is expecting a major roar and pour, but all you have is about 10 minutes of the precious liquid. Just enough to unnecessarily rinse your morning wash on the clothes line and make you let out a curse – since you are not in time to take them down!

The little mercy that the passing cyclone over the weekend – merely some light rain here and there — granted us only a few hours of cool on Monday morning, but we were soon sizzling in stifling heat and humidity again, and no sign of a let-up on the horizon.

Like the ancient mariner, we are not in a position to lament, ‘water water everywhere, and not a drop to drink.’

As my Rector Bullen used to say during the morning Assembly at the Royal College Curepipe, in the 1960s, ‘Let us pray.’

Mauritius Times ePaper Friday 7 February 2025