What does Trump’s win mean for American foreign policy?
Given his unpredictable and often volatile and inconsistent pronouncements, the world will lack a sense of stability from America in the years ahead
By Anil Madan
Donald Trump won a decisive victory in the presidential election. He will claim, incorrectly, but understandably, that he has a mandate to carry out his agenda. Never mind that discerning a cohesive Trumpian agenda is nigh impossible because… well, because there is no cohesive Trumpian agenda. Nevertheless, there are clues as to the broad strokes in both the domestic and foreign policy arenas with which Trump intends to paint while he is wielding the brush.
When it comes to foreign policy and geopolitics, Trump spouts mixed messages attempting to convey both toughness and disengagement. The toughness is illusory because he assumes that he can bend actors as diverse as China, Russia, Kim Jong Un, Volodymir Zelensky, Bibi Netanyahu, Saudi Arabia’s MBS, and others to do his bidding.
The perils of Trump’s zero-sum approach to US-China relations
When it comes to China, Trump’s transactional view of the relationship of that country with the US leads him to treat trade as a zero-sum game. He has proposed the imposition of hefty tariffs on all imports from China to the tune of 60% and up to 20% on imports from other countries. The goal here seems to be both to secure trading equity and geopolitical advantage. This runs the risk of conflating different aspects of the relationship and losing both ways.
Trump has long acted under the misimpression that the tariffs are a revenue-raising mechanism for the US. He simply does not understand that the tariffs will ultimately fall upon American consumers and effectively being a massive price rise, lead to soaring inflation and likely cause a severe recession at home.
The negative effects of punitive tariffs on imports from China would be devastating without even taking into account retaliatory measures that China would impose. For example, if China were to impose retaliatory tariffs on aircraft supplied by American manufacturers (read Boeing) that would be devastating to Boeing’s sales and would allow Airbus to gain a significant advantage over its American rival.
The US is highly dependent on China as a manufacturer of goods. In 2023, we imported $536 billion worth of goods and services from China and exported about $148 billion.
More importantly, the US is dependent on China for pharmaceutical goods, rare earth minerals, and indeed, many US companies have outsourced the manufacture of their goods to China, so that if China embargoed its exports to the US both economies would start to grind down and this would produce a massive worldwide recession.
The America-China relationship is also marked by confrontation in the geopolitical sphere. China continues to encroach in the South China Sea and to threaten Taiwan. It is not known how much pain China is willing to endure on the economic front in order to establish a huge footprint in the South China Sea. My sense is that we do not want to goad China into making risky moves because the US is limited in what it can do to keep Taiwan independent.
As difficult as it may seem to think that the US would abandon Taiwan to the predations of Xi Jinping, that is seemingly precisely what Trump suggests. He has complained that the US does not “owe” Taiwan a defense because they “stole” our semiconductor industry. The charge is ludicrous. As of now, the risk to Taiwan has increased exponentially.
China also controls critical rare earth minerals necessary for the US to maintain the functions of critical systems including those related to defense. Disrupting the relationship with China could have costly consequences for the US and its ability to secure desperately needed supplies.
Trump, Israel, and the nuclear threat from Iran
When it comes to Israel, Trump has stated that Israel should “finish the job” when it comes to Gaza. It seems clear that his support for Israel is not fettered by humanitarian concerns for the Gazans. What is not clear is how he will be able to get Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia on board to make a lasting peace with Israel.
On that score, dealing with the threat that Iran poses to Israel and to its Arab neighbours writ large will be critical. In Trump, there is no love lost for Iran. He is likely to be confrontational and aggressive in dealing with that nation’s theocratic regime. This is pure power politics because here too, Trump is not motivated by humanitarian concerns about the Iranian people.
A wild card is what Trump would do if Iran does develop nuclear weapons and demonstrate that they can be delivered by missiles. Saudi Arabia’s MBS has stated clearly that if Iran gets nukes, Saudi Arabia must get them as well. Can Trump prevent proliferation? That remains to be seen.
Unpredictable foreign policy: From Ukraine to NATO and beyond
Trump has said that he can and will end the war between Ukraine and Russia. The problem here is that Ukraine’s population has been devastated with millions of its women and children fleeing, and it is short of men and munitions. Trump’s apparent strategy is to have Ukraine cede territory to Russia and then hope that Putin does not escalate or attack again. The US under Trump is unlikely to provide boots on the ground, and Trump seems to have a fascination for Putin. It is apparent that the very survival of Ukraine is up in the air with Trump.
Russian oligarchs are known to covet the wheat fields of Ukraine. Trump’s actions could have the unintended effect of putting Ukraine’s wheat production in Russia’s hands. If that were to happen, it is not difficult to imagine that supplies will be diverted to China and away from Africa and Europe. The consequences for world hunger would be devastating.
So also, with the rest of Europe. It is not clear whether Trump will continue to view NATO as surplus in the modern era. The members of NATO certainly don’t view it as a surplus undertaking. On the other hand, NATO’s effectiveness and cohesiveness are heavily dependent on the participation of the US in its defensive strategies. Under Trump, NATO is in danger of becoming ineffective, and if he withdraws the US from the alliance, the resulting US-Europe rupture would produce profound changes in the geopolitical security structure. This will spur the European countries to spend more on defense and to find ways to sharpen their alliances with each other. Confrontation with Russia would certainly be more likely.
Kim Jong Nuke continues to be a wild card. In his first term, Trump gave up on Kim. Will he try to revive his bilateral one-on-one approach? No predictions here, but it will be interesting to find out.
It is not clear at all how Trump will deal with the alliances that the US has tried to forge with Australia, Japan, India, the Philippines and Vietnam in the Pacific region. Will Trump try to strengthen these relationships or approach them with the same transactional view as he has approached NATO?
In the coming weeks and months, we will see more flesh on Trump’s plans for America’s role in the world. Given his unpredictable and often volatile and inconsistent pronouncements, the world will lack a sense of stability from America in the years ahead.
Cheerz…
Bwana
Mauritius Times ePaper Friday 8 November 2024
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