The US-Israel-Iran Triangle: From Obliteration to Mediation

Breakfast with Bwana

By Anil Madan

As the NATO summit wound up at The Hague, President Trump held a press conference following another stream of rambling remarks. A question raised by more than one journalist was whether the recent US bombing run on Iran’s nuclear facilities had truly obliterated Iran’s nuclear capabilities. Seven US B-2 Stealth Bombers flew a round-trip mission from the state of Missouri to Iran and dropped their payload of GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) bombs on three nuclear sites — presumably all three were used for enrichment — in Iran. Trump insisted that the nuclear facilities had been “obliterated” thus repeating a claim he made on June 22, while announcing that the bombing mission had just taken place.

Has Iran’s nuclear capability been obliterated?

Since then, there has been a report that the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) issued a classified report assessing that the Iranian nuclear program had merely been set back a few months. Trump vociferously dismissed that conclusion saying it was preliminary, based on incomplete information, and that the DIA could not know what happened below the surface. It should not be lost on us that Trump was essentially confirming that the DIA had indeed issued such a report. Earlier, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt decried the unauthorized leak of the report, and later Defense Secretary Hegseth announced that the FBI was investigating the leak, thereby also confirming that such a report exists. At the Hague, Trump revealed that the DIA report presented alternative scenarios, one of severe damage and one of limited damage.

So, was Iran’s nuclear program obliterated? Or was the truth obliterated? Did Iran have enough time to move enriched uranium offsite, and does it have other facilities where it could restart its enrichment activities and get on with making a deliverable nuclear weapon?

We may never know the whole truth. The DIA is but one unit of American intelligence. Other agencies such as the CIA, various other specialty units within the Pentagon, Israel’s Mossad, British intelligence, and other interested parties will assess what has been accomplished and try to estimate how much capability Iran still retains and how much of what was destroyed it can restore. It is worth noting that Rafael Grossi, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said that Iran could rebuild its nuclear structure. Grossi stated that he had received a letter from the Iranian foreign minister claiming that Iran had taken protective measures. Although, according to Grossi, Iran’s letter did not get into details, he thought the clear implication is that Iran had secured its enriched uranium.

One can read speculation from around the world regarding how much success the US MOP bombs have achieved. I see little point in adding my two cents’ worth of speculation. Rather, let us focus on “the day after” the figurative future that we find ourselves facing.

Some things are a given. Trump will continue to insist that the US did indeed obliterate Iran’s nuclear capability. Any number of spokespersons within his administration will repeat his claims and the echo chamber will reverberate until the word “obliterated” becomes a part of America’s daily lexicon. Israel will also bask in Trump’s success with Netanyahu continuing to lavish praise on him. But only for a short while. Soon enough, even though Netanyahu has claimed that during its twelve-day war, Israel has eliminated the threat of nuclear annihilation by Iran, it will be in Israel’s interest to resurrect the Iranian bogeyman and revive the idea that the Supreme Leader Ayatollah and his theocratic regime remain an existential threat to Israel.

Iran will insist that minimal damage has been inflicted on its Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow sites, but will not allow inspections by the IAEA. Indeed, even as Grossi stressed the need for IAEA inspectors to go to Iran to reassess its nuclear capabilities, Al Jazeera reports that Iran’s parliament has passed a bill to suspend cooperation with the IAEA. The bill must be approved by Iran’s national security council but that is likely a formality.

Israel-Iran Ceasefire

So, why do we suddenly have a ceasefire between Israel and Iran? Surely, it cannot be that the Islamic Republic has renounced its foreign policy doctrine calling for the destruction of Israel as a Jewish state. Iran’s first Supreme Leader, Khomeini, did that from 1979 when the Shah was overthrown, and his successor, Ali Khamenei, too has called for the elimination of Israel as a cancerous tumor.

Here too, we can speculate or broach informed analysis. Surely, it is not the force of Trump’s magnetic personality that led both Netanyahu and Khamenei to agree to a ceasefire. We don’t even know if Khamenei is in charge since rumors circulate that Iran’s military is calling the shots.

We can proceed on the assumption that the US bombing mission together with Israel’s airstrikes and missile attacks have inflicted massive damage on Iran’s air defenses, its military leadership, and its missile manufacturing and launching capacity, as well as its drone-based offensive capability.

But we cannot dismiss that this is all a feint and that Iran will use a pause in airstrikes and missile attacks by Israel, to regroup and resupply.

Which is it? Iran seemed almost too eager to agree to a ceasefire. Its response to the US bombing was measured, a pre-announced attack on the Al-Udeid US base in Doha, Qatar. The missiles fired by Iran were intercepted and US personnel had time to evacuate before the attack began.

One can also assume that Iran agreed from a position of weakness, that is, it accepted a ceasefire because Israel did indeed have control of Iranian airspace and could attack Iran’s military and command and control infrastructure at will.

Although either scenario is plausible, it seems that the US bombing made two points difficult for Iran to ignore: first, that the US does indeed have the capability of dispatching B-2 Stealth bombers from halfway across the world to strike Iran with precision, and second that there is now a president willing to use that capability. The warning that regime change is in the offing is unmistakable.

Did Israel have a clear advantage and if so, why give it up? Well, one must keep in mind that Israel has been carrying on a two-year campaign of airstrikes in Gaza and has survived two previous missile attacks by Iran albeit with assistance from American naval forces intercepting Iranian missiles and drones. Israel’s supplies of missiles and defensive missile interceptors are depleted.

And one must suppose that there is a yearning for peace in Israel as the war on Gaza drags on and the specter of more war with Iran looms. Add to that Trump’s arm twisting and Netanyahu had little choice but to agree to a ceasefire. The effect of the arm twisting was evident when Netanyahu recalled fighter jets during a launch to attack Iran.

Evidence of backdoor negotiations

There is evidence of backdoor negotiations too. There are reports that Trump special envoy Witkoff spoke directly with Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi, asking Iran to resume negotiations, the US military had shown what it could do and there was the implicit threat of more to come. As well, US officials asked Qatar to contact Iran and find out if it was ready to agree to a ceasefire. Keeping in mind that Qatar had just been attacked by Iran, this was an extraordinary move. Of course, Iran’s attack on the base in Qatar was always meant as a face-saving, but de-escalatory move.

An excerpt of Trump’s message posted on his social media platform is instructive:

            CONGRATULATIONS TO EVERYONE!

            On the assumption that everything works as it should, which it will, I would like to congratulate both Countries, Israel and Iran, on having the Stamina, Courage, and Intelligence to end, what should be called “THE TWELVE DAY WAR.” This is a war that could have gone on for years, and destroyed the entire Middle East, but it didn’t and never will! God Bless Israel, God Bless Iran, God Bless the Middle East, God Bless the United States of America, and GOD BLESS THE WORLD.

            DONALD J. TRUMP

            PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA.

One must give Trump credit if this ceasefire sticks and leads to a lasting peace in the Middle East. At The Hague, At The Hague, Trump indicated he wouldn’t try to stop Iran’s oil trade, stating the country needs the money to rebuild.

He is obsessed with winning the Nobel Peace Prize probably because Obama won it. He has posted: “I should’ve gotten it four or five times.” And his credentials? India-Pakistan, Serbia-Kosovo, Rwanda-Congo, Israel-Iran, and he hopes Israel-Gaza, and Russia-Ukraine.

If resolving some of the world’s most intractable enmities means pandering to a fragile ego, let us pander away.

Cheerz…
Bwana

Mauritius Times ePaper Friday 27 June 2025