Political Tidings

Editorial

As the nation approaches its upcoming elections, speculation intensifies over the precise timing of the vote. The political landscape presents both challenges and opportunities for all parties involved. The ruling MSM alliance is contending with significant issues, including allegations of mismanagement, corruption, and controversial decisions made not only during the Covid-19 pandemic but throughout its entire tenure. Meanwhile, the opposition faces a government seemingly intent on leveraging every possible advantage to secure re-election.

However, the MSM finds itself in a difficult position. With public trust eroding and criticism mounting, the party is striving to turn things around. Its strategy involves forming a new alliance with the PMSD, following an almost four-year period as part of the main opposition alliance led by the Labour Party and MMM. Although this MSM-PMSD alliance has not yet been formalized, it has already led to changes, including the replacement of Sooroojdev Phokeer with Adrien Duval as Speaker of the Legislative Assembly and an unsuccessful attempt to reinstate the Mauritius Turf Club at Champ de Mars, among other measures.

In addition, the government has been making various promises and distributing benefits since the last budget, but the anticipated positive impact has remained elusive, as each round of measures seems to contribute to growing inflationary pressures. The government is now introducing new promises, including advancing the PRB report for civil servants by one year, although payments will only be made retroactively in December for January 2025. Whether these efforts will be sufficient to shift the balance in favour of the MSM remains to be seen. Both the MSM and the PMSD have faced a barrage of criticism on the social media for such tinkering. The MSM’s situation is further complicated due to the relative success of recent Labour Party-MMM rallies. The success of these rallies, despite attempts to disrupt them, suggests that the opposition is gaining momentum, which may have shaken the MSM’s confidence.

The timing of the elections has become a crucial decision, with the ruling party carefully evaluating its options and strategising its next moves. Several factors will influence the Prime Minister’s decision on when to hold the elections – public perception through polls and NSS Reports, the popularity of government policies, and the strengths and weaknesses of the opposition. The potential alliance with PMSD will also play a significant role, requiring careful management of relationships within the alliance and the candidate selection process.

On the other hand, economic conditions are a major factor in electoral outcomes. Voter concerns about poverty, rising living costs, and job prospects often overshadow enthusiasm for major infrastructure projects. While short-term incentives and benefits may influence some voters, long-term economic stability and effective solutions to pressing issues are likely to have a more significant impact. As for environmental management it hit rock-bottom with the unexplained MV Wakashio disaster, compounded by savage concreting of vast swathes of the country and made unbearable by the horror stories of Bilal flooding in our capital and many agglomerations.

It goes without saying that no drug barons have been taken to courts in several high-profile arrests, and traffickers seem to outmanoeuvre police vigilance either on the street corners or in private estates used for rave parties (Grand Bassin or Fond du Sac raids come to mind). It cannot but reflect poorly on our ability or willingness to stem if not root out the evil from our once relatively peaceful shores. Law and order are a preoccupation for many parents with school-children and elderlies who endure the worst with little help. What is worse is that our schools churn out some 3-4,000 dropouts annually who have failed basic numeracy or literacy tests, without any pathways for social inclusion or any alternative education protocols.

Social issues such as healthcare, education, and law and order are also important to voters. The government’s handling of these issues, especially concerning rising drug problems and overall public safety, will significantly impact voter decisions. Effective management of these areas will be as crucial as economic policies in determining election outcomes. Additionally, attempts to target and harass opposition leaders through investigations may also backfire and have a negative influence on electors as seen in other countries across the world.

The current situation remains uncertain at this point in time. While the opposition may have an edge in urban areas, there is still uncertainty about how rural constituencies will vote. The rural electorate appears divided between supporting Navin Ramgoolam/Berenger or sticking with Pravind Jugnauth, making the final outcome hard to predict. As the election nears, both sides must face the harsh realities of political competition. For the ruling MSM alliance, success will hinge on capitalizing on the opposition’s weaknesses while projecting an image of strength and infrastructure completion to voters while facing an undoubted “usure du pouvoir”. For the opposition, this election represents a critical opportunity to overcome internal challenges and present a unified, compelling alternative to the current government.

In the end, the timing of the elections will be determined by a complex mix of legal, strategic, and political factors. Amid the chaos and uncertainty, one thing is clear: the future of the nation is at stake as each side vies for victory in this crucial electoral contest.

Mauritius Times ePaper Friday 23 August 2024