“Let us not jump the gun. No race is won before it is run”

Interview: Kugan Parapen

* ‘unnatural alliances can happen. For example, for many political analysts, the MSM-PMSD alliance is a foregone conclusion’

* ‘The recent political history shows how power abuse occurs when when we elect a government where the majority partner enjoys a more than comfortable majority’

As Mauritius gears up for the upcoming elections, the political scene is vibrant yet uncertain. Kugan Parapen, economist and member of  Rezistans ek Alternativ, provides insights into the dynamic landscape, noting a surge in government and opposition activities. However, amidst this flurry, voter sentiment remains undecided and cautious. Jugan Parapen anticipates intense campaigning marked by mudslinging and strategic manoeuvers. He highlights the potential impact of smaller parties and calls for pragmatic engagement to address systemic issues. Overall, he underscores the need for meaningful reforms to strengthen democracy and restore public trust.

Mauritius Times: The political landscape appears dynamic and charged as the next elections approach. There is a noticeable flurry of activity, with all parties refining their strategies and some engaging in alliance discussions. How do you perceive the current state of affairs in the lead-up to the elections?

Kugan Parapen: La marmite est effectivement en ébullition… (The pot is indeed boiling.) On the government side, ministers and other MPs seem to have awoken from years of hibernation and are now intent on (re)discovering their constituencies. Supposed projects are being unveiled on a daily basis and selfies with citizens have become the norm.

On the opposition side, we see a lot of posturing from wanna-be candidates. They are everywhere they think it matters. Weddings, funerals, religious functions, football tournaments and what not. Overall, voters are being seduced. Or should we say lured?

* It’s quite challenging these days to accurately assess the sentiments of a significant section of voters. Many people are either reluctant to voice their opinions or find themselves undecided about which alliance to support. There does not appear to be a clear-cut majority on either side of the spectrum. This is not very reassuring for both the opposition and the governing alliance, is it?

When was the last time the country headed into general elections with an outright favourite? In 2000 maybe. Ever since, there has always been some uncertainty about the outcome of the general election. There are numerous factors which can account for this state of affairs, none more so than the lack of reliable polls in the run up to the election.

In 2019, we were convinced that the MSM-led alliance would not get reelected, and we were proved wrong. Well, not entirely actually because that alliance only managed 38% of the votes. Our reading of the political landscape was correct in essence, but it was undermined by our incorrect assessment of the dynamics of the First-Past-The-Post electoral system in a three-cornered fight.

Our reading of the next electoral bout is not diametrically opposed to what it was in 2019. Far from it, we find it hard to believe that Jugnauth is more popular now than he was then. It will all come down to tactics and pragmatism. For good measure, we can also add ego and greed.

* On the other hand, what appears certain is that the battle will be intense and hard-fought. One should not expect much as regards the level of political discourse and civility; there are instead indications of significant mudslinging targeting political opponents, particularly the Labour Party leader, in the weeks ahead. Whether these attacks will sway public opinion or backfire remains uncertain. What do you think?

As you rightly point out, the next electoral campaign is shaping up to be a masterclass in gutter politics. The strategy of the government seems to be centred around making a villain out of Ramgoolam. This is quite understandable given the effectiveness of this strategy in 2019.

In many quarters, the prospect of a return of the former Prime Minister to affairs is a no-go. But in these same quarters, Jugnauth is often perceived as a worse alternative for the country. For this reason, we believe that the MSM spin doctors have got their strategy wrong. They are felling a tree whose fruits they simply cannot harvest. But then again, that might be the only strategy they have.

The population will need more convincing than a laborious recap of the shortcomings of Ramgoolam in the pre-2014 era. They expect Jugnauth to defend his ten-year tenure as Prime Minister. Recent appearances of stalwarts like Callichurn and Teeluck suggest that this will be no mean feat.

* What also appears certain is that the battle will be waged by the two main political alliances, each seeking to outdo the other with increasingly popular measures. What do you think are the prospects for new or ‘smaller’ parties, some of which come with the ideas and are driven by the public interest, in the next election?

Let us not jump the gun.

No race is won before it is run. While the prospects for ‘smaller’ parties look dim based on historical records, they can certainly play a major role in the outcome of the election if they get their tactics right. At worst, they can be a significant nuisance factor and be decisive in deciding who the eventual winner will be. At best, they could envisage electing a decent number of MPs and becoming a force to be reckoned with within parliament.

Many have called out non-parliamentary political parties in recent weeks for supposedly faire le jeu du MSM (to play into the hands of the MSM). As if political entities cannot exist outside the realm of traditional parties. This brings us back to 2014 whereby late Anerood Jugnauth also ostracised parties like Rezistans ek Alternativ as he led the Alliance Lepep into electoral battle.

What was true then remains valid now: no one can deny an individual their constitutional rights to stand as a candidate for the values and principles they believe in. If one believes that the electoral support garnered by a competing party is strong enough to derail its path to victory, then they should engage with such a force tactically rather than maligning it

What is certain is that an increasing segment of the electorate has lost confidence in parliamentary parties and would be willing to support a credible alternative should one emerge. As of now, no extra-parliamentary party can claim to provide such an alternative on their own, unfortunately. This is why we reiterate our call for opposition parties, whether parliamentary or extra-parliamentary, to be pragmatic for the upcoming general elections, especially considering what is at stake.

* What does this situation reveal about the evolution of local politics and the entrenched political culture that has prevailed over the past decades? Can we get out of this rut and move towards a more dynamic, effective political environment?

Our political culture unfortunately is such that change is slow to manifest itself. A review of the last 30 years or so will reveal that very little has changed in our political landscape. While we would not oppose the view that there has been, over the years, numerous citizens have valiantly campaigned for change, we cannot but come to the conclusion that tangible results have been hard to come by.

This is why it is imperative that we deliver systemic changes after years of status-quo. We simply cannot rely on the goodwill of individuals to move towards a more dynamic, effective political environment. The backbone of our democracy needs to be strengthened and what better way to do that than to bring forth significant constitutional amendments to put a stop to the rapid erosion of our democratic values.

* One would expect parties like ReA to engage in negotiations aimed at establishing a consensus regarding crucial issues such as electoral reform, rule of law, the protection of human rights, social inequality and welfare, the fight against corruption, and for more transparency in government, etc., with a view to ensuring the viability and effectiveness of any prospective alliance. Is this the reason why the proposed grand alliance previously advocated by ReA appears to have fallen off the agenda of the Labour Party-MMM alliance?

Was it ever on the agenda of the Labour Party-MMM alliance? We have no recollection of the respective leaders of these two parties pronouncing themselves in favour of a grand alliance as proposed by Rezistans ek Alternativ.

As part of ReA’s campaign to enact Constitutional Reform in Mauritius, the party has met with representatives of all major political parties to express its view that only a broad alliance would ensure the dual objectives of ousting the current regime and delivering far-reaching systemic reforms.

While all political parties have been attentive to our perspective, we have yet to see any of those parties endorse this strategy publicly. However, in private, many do concede that this is probably the most appealing strategy. Unfortunately, politicians do not always strive in the best interest of our society but often place partisan and even personal considerations first. There is also the issue of deeply entrenched distrust among most politicians, and this makes the whole process even more challenging.

Our perspective is quite straightforward: Wouldn’t it be better to join a grand opposition alliance and secure a path to victory and all that ensues. Why risk dividing the opposition’s votes and giving Jugnauth and his mob a chance?

That said, there is also another major advantage in ushering in a transition government. The recent political history of our country provides ample evidence of the abuse of power that occurs when we elect a government where the majority partner enjoys a more than comfortable majority. This trend was observed in 2005, 2010, 2014, and 2019. In each of these instances, there was a distinct imbalance of power, and the population has been left worse off as a result.

So, all in all, a transition government is an appealing proposition for our society. It delivers the political change we so badly need while also ensuring that our next government is equipped with a proper balance of power to deliver the much-sought constitutional reforms.

* Do you believe there will be any significant surprises or upsets in this election, such as unexpected alliances or candidates emerging?

Our electoral system favours the coming together of political parties to form alliances ahead of elections. It should be no different this time.

Based on that premise, unnatural alliances can happen. For example, for many political analysts, the MSM-PMSD alliance is a foregone conclusion. In the context of things, this is as unnatural as political logic goes. Duval has been the main critic of this government in parliament for as long as one can remember. Aligning with Jugnauth in the upcoming elections, regardless of any concessions he might secure along the way, will undoubtedly feel unnatural to many.

Concerning candidates, we are led to believe there will be quite a few surprises in the offing. In any case, the emergence of new figures in the political landscape should be viewed favorably, provided they possess the required credentials to be good politicians. Unfortunately, when we assess the current crop of MPs who were elected for the first time in 2019, we can only reach the conclusion that most of them are simply not up to the task.

* It’s unlikely that the current economic challenges facing Mauritius or economic policies and job creation will be in influencing voter decisions, so what are the key issues, besides the character and reputation of the leaders, that you believe will dominate the election campaign this year, and how are the different parties addressing these issues?

Recent electoral campaigns have been mainly dominated by populist policies, and it looks likely that the next campaign could be a bis-repetita. However, given the current state of our democracy, the electorate might also pay special attention to democratic reforms like the compulsory holding of regional elections, ensuring fairness within our parliament and electoral reform.

But the one topic which could dominate the campaign in our opinion is strictly economic in essence and that is the purchasing power of the population. Voters are aware that their purchasing power has receded in recent years and will be on the lookout for specific measures that will have a direct impact on their income. Unfortunately, they might be swayed by populist measures which might give the impression that they will be better off when, in fact, such measures might lead to further erosion of the value of the rupee down the line.

* Beyond social media and digital campaigning, another potential player in the upcoming election could be artificial intelligence. While its potential impact on voters remains uncertain at this stage, do you believe we could be venturing into risky territory?

History will likely be very kind to artificial intelligence (AI) and deem it to have fuelled a great leap forward for mankind. The possibilities AI offers to humanity are immense and far-reaching.

Like with any new technology, AI does also represent a threat when it falls in ill-intentioned hands. We have already seen how the MSM used AI to modify their footage from their 1st of May gathering at Vacoas in an attempt to show a non-existent massive crowd. We should expect more attempts to distort the truth in the coming months and it is likely to come from both the government and opposition ranks.

It is thus very important that citizens and the independent media fact check the information coming their way.

* Regarding the economy, it has now been confirmed that the Finance minister will present the current government’s final budget on June 7. It is reasonable to surmise that this pre-electoral budget will focus more on electioneering than on deep structural reforms. The pertinent question is whether the country can afford the likely electoral promises and incentives that will be proposed to the electorate?

It is becoming clear that inflation is the ultimate solution for governments which come forward with populist measures. By populist, I mean measures which simply cannot be afforded by the State given the state of its coffers. So, while the population is conned into thinking that its revenue is increasing (which it is in nominal terms obviously), the purchasing power of that rupee is falling off a cliff.

The government is making sure that voters are aware that the median household salary has gone to MUR 42,000. Which is a remarkable increase in nominal terms if we compare to what it was ten years ago. But does that mean that the purchasing power of the median household has gone up? Certainly not.

We are worried that Mauritius has embarked on an inflationary journey which could very well get worse in years ahead. If our worst fears were to materialise, the Mauritian rupee will lose even more ground on international FX markets and locals will increasingly hoard foreign currencies, hence making the whole situation even more dire.

Once a currency loses its credibility, it can be a long walk in the desert. Unfortunately, we get the impression that by introducing measures which cannot be sustained by public finances in the medium to long run, our politicians are compromising our economy and hence our future.

* It is also reasonable to expect that, if the current governing alliance wins the next election, there will not be significant changes in the policies and practices that have protected it from criticism and challenges from the Opposition, both inside and outside the Legislative Assembly. What should we expect from the Opposition if it is voted into power?

The first thing which comes to our mind is to ask which opposition?

If it is a classic opposition with one partner of the alliance having a comfortable majority, we do not expect any drastic change. There will obviously be some adjustments here and there, but the essence of it all should remain the same.

Not much has changed over the last twenty to thirty years in terms of governance at public level. ECO, ICAC, FCC – three institutions which have succeeded each other over the years and under different regimes. Each time the latest institution which emerges is publicised as being more efficient and purposeful. Yet, nothing really changes.

That is why we believe that only a more evenly balanced government can bring about real change.

Mauritius Times ePaper Friday 24 May 2024