Climate change or not…

But floods, extreme heat, landslides are real

By Dr R Neerunjun Gopee

When the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which was set up in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), came out with its initial reports, I recall coming across articles – including one in the respected Scientific American magazine – wherein naysayers denied that climate change was taking place. Of late, though, it would seem that it is the views of the proponents of climate change that are predominating.

Much of Europe, U.S. grapple with scorching temperatures. Pic – CBC News

Its website notes that IPCC assessments are written by hundreds of leading scientists who enlist hundreds of other experts to provide complementary expertise in specific areas. Besides, IPCC reports undergo multiple rounds of drafting and review to ensure they are comprehensive and objective and produced in an open and transparent way, and that the reports reflect the full range of views in the scientific community.

The UN has been coming under fire for some time now on a number of its roles – among others: human rights issues, humanitarian aid, prevention of conflicts and wars, representation at the level of the UN Security Council – with very severe criticisms having been levelled at it, to the extent of some member states advancing that it is no longer relevant and should be dissolved since reform seems to be impossible!

However, in all fairness, its scientific bodies seem to have greater credibility. Like the IPCC, they too are staffed by a wide, global cross-section of scientists and other domain experts. It is now generally accepted that climate change is happening, because of global warming caused by the totality of human activities and is responsible for many of the unusual phenomena that the world has been subjected to in recent times.

Whatever the doubters believe, undeniably extreme heat, heavy rainfall, swollen rivers, flash floods and mudslides, tornadoes and cyclones, turbulence in aircraft are for real! They are occurring suddenly and unexpectedly, across all continents and irrespective of the usual seasonal patterns, catching thousands of people unaware and invariably causing death, destruction and misery so protracted that before affected areas have time to return to any semblance of normalcy, other catastrophes loom!

Last Friday, for example, Papua New Guinea was hit by a mountain landslide which has submerged whole villages, with an officially estimated 2000 deaths. This happened in a remote area, and compounded with difficulty of access because of debris, there was delay in the arrival of a first excavator until Sunday. In the meantime, the people were struggling with whatever implements they could lay their hands on, and even using their bare hands to dig where they thought they could hear cries for help coming from below ground.

At the other end of the world, Brazil was still battling the aftermath of the most severe floods that it had suffered in several years, and that had caused deaths and extensive damage to human habitations and to infrastructure.

In the USA four states – Texas, Arkansas, Kentucky, and Oklahoma – have been hit by cyclones and tornadoes last weekend. In a matter of hours buildings have been flattened to the ground over vast areas. 21 people are reported dead. In public buildings where they could, people rushed to the toilets to seek shelter and avoid injuries, if not death, as these areas were the only ‘hard-built’ parts of those structures. One could see numerous pieces of metal and other materials flying overhead, creating apprehension about where they would land and adding to the damage.

As I watched these scenes on the television, I was reminded of cyclone Carol in April 1960. I and my siblings similarly saw iron sheets pulled off the roofs of houses and flying off in the air. We called them soucoupes volantes (flying saucers).  And so too do I recall the spectacle of desolation in the immediate aftermath of the cyclone, and the disbelief and despair writ large on the faces of everybody, obviously more so in those whose houses had been damaged almost beyond repair: in those days most houses were of the colonial type, made of wood framework and iron roofs, some had wooden tiles for the roof. But all suffered serious damage. And we too have had our fair share, haven’t we, of unusually heavy rains with flooding and severe cyclonic weather since the year began.

High temperatures have also been occurring in several places. In Bharat, where general elections are being held, temperatures in the high 40s haven’t deterred people from turning out to vote, and understandably many chose early morning or later afternoon when the heat was somewhat less. In one area in the state of Rajasthan, the temperature a few days ago touched 49 degrees Celsius! On an average it was 45-47 degrees there and in adjoining Delhi.

In Delhi almost 50 years ago I stood waiting for transport outside the hospital where I was doing my internship and felt the tar melting under my shoes. Later that evening I learnt that the temperature had been recorded as 47 degrees. But I have experienced higher temperature still: 55 degrees in the shade in the Namib desert in 1992. I was part of a delegation of Commonwealth Fellows, and we were being hosted at the American base there, halfway through to the town of Swakopmund on the west coast of Namibia. We did not feel unduly uncomfortable though, because it was dry heat.

The physiological adaptation of the human body to temperature variations has been extensively researched, especially for the cold. In fact, this is an important topic – acclimatization — which we had to study in physiology. We probably have better knowledge about exposure to cold than about the impact of heat. But we have to catch up, and fast.

There have been no reports of deaths due to extreme heat that I know of in the current heat wave in Bharat. In contrast, it would be recalled that about two decades ago during heat wave in France, almost 20,000 people – the elderly in particular – lost their lives due mainly to dehydration. Europe was never used to such high temperatures – barring the sweltering summer of 1976 in the UK that was experienced after nearly 40 years. Mostly Europe is on the cooler side there even during summer, so this was extremely unusual. Fortunately, the people have since been better prepared in subsequent heat waves, which are nowadays a regular feature, and in several countries such as Portugal and Spain where they have also been associated with extensive forest fires too.

A friend abroad forwarded me an article in ‘The Guardian’ (UK) of Mon 27 May 2024, written by David King, chair of the global Climate Crisis Advisory Group. It contains a stark message: ‘On our current path, civilisation as we know it will disappear.’

Unless, realizing that ‘we are a part of the natural world and depend on it, we choose to transition our societies into a sustainable period of ecological civilisation.’

How? By swinging into action with the 4 Rs he advocates: Reduce emissions, build resilience, repair ecosystems, remove greenhouse gases.

What choice will we make? And what can we do to save our small island – that also is important to ponder.

Mauritius Times ePaper Friday 31 May 2024