Thoughts For The Ages
The world has long worried about a population bomb. It seems that we must also worry about an ageing bomb
By Anil Madan
It is a reasonable bet that if the subject of the world’s burgeoning population came up, one would have adverted to either China or India, the former the world’s most populous country for oh, ever so long, and the other close on its heels.
One would have paid scant attention to Kenya, Nigeria, Egypt, or Iran, or indeed, any number of countries that have had explosive population growth from the 1960s to date.
The fDi Intelligence website, part of the Financial Times, projects that the top gainers, percentagewise, in population with increases over 90% by 2050, will be mostly African countries, Congo (DRC), Central African Republic, Angola, Somalia, Niger, and Chad.
The UN expects that by 2050, 126 out of 237 countries will see population growth. These include India, Indonesia, Nigeria and the US, already among the most populous countries in the world.
In contradistinction to these projections, that are based on seeing the world’s population grow from 8.1 to 9.6 billion by 2050, are some jarring reports.
A spokesman for the Chinese government explained that China’s National Social Security Fund was established in 2000, is a “strategic reserve fund for social security needs during the peak period of population aging and the ballast of my country’s social security system.” Whatever.
What is significant is that China just announced that it will shore up the almost 3 trillion-yuan fund, making it bigger and stronger, to help support its rapidly ageing population as the birth rate drops and the number of younger workers to support the system shrinks.
Ageing bomb
The world has long worried about a population bomb. It seems that we must also worry about an ageing bomb. Over the next ten years, almost 300 million Chinese will retire. This is close to the total US population. Euromonitor, a data analytics firm, estimates that one-half of all people aged over 65 in the Asia-Pacific region will be found in China by 2040.
The US birthrate — a calculation of how many babies the average American woman is expected to have over her lifetime — has dwindled to a record low of 1.62 births per woman in 2023. The alarm that this has engendered among demographers and economists was reflected in the statements by Yoram Hazony, chairman of the Edmund Burke Foundation: “If you are not having children, your nation is finished,” and “America has now followed Europe into an inability to guarantee another generation.”
Politicians of all persuasions have wrestled with ideas to deal with this crisis. So far, their prescriptions are limited to providing child support payments or cash rewards for having children. All of this is of little effect. The number of births in the US last year was the lowest since 1979.Read More… Become a Subscriber
Mauritius Times ePaper Friday 6 September 2024
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