The Xi-Trump Meeting: The more things change, the more they stay the same

‘For all the fuss, there does not seem to be much of a change in the US-China relationship’

By Anil Madan

The well telegraphed mini “summit” between President Xi Jinping and President Donald Trump in Busan, South Korea, on Thursday 30 October 2025, ended with Trump saying that it had been a very good meeting, a 12 on a scale of zero to 10 with ten being the best. He announced that President Xi had agreed to curb the flow of precursor chemicals used to make fentanyl which eventually finds its way into the US, to lift restraints on export to the US of critical rare earth minerals of which China controls most of the world’s production, and to resume China’s purchase of American soybeans, sorghum and other agricultural products in meaningful quantities. In return, the US will not implement the additional tariffs that Trump threatened just before the APEC meeting in South Korea and will lower the tariffs on fentanyl-related products from 20% to 10%. A Chinese spokesperson said this would bring the 57% extant tariff rate on Chinese exports to 47%.

President Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One that he considered the talks with President Xi in South Korea a massive success and rated the meeting a “12 out of 10”. Pic – South China Morning Post

After the meeting, President Xi said the two countries should work together and complete outstanding tasks from the summit for the “peace of mind” of China, the US, and the rest of the world. Xi, according to a Chinese state media report, said: “Both sides should take the long-term perspective into account, focusing on the benefits of cooperation rather than falling into a vicious cycle of mutual retaliation.”

Official comments from the Chinese side were restrained stating that the US and China had reached consensus on issues, but they did not announce any trade deals. The outlines remain fuzzy with the two sides agreeing to try to reach more agreements in future discussions.

Details on the discussions between Trump and Xi and the basic agreements made have been reported widely, so other than the basic summary above, I’ll leave readers to look at the hundreds of articles on the subject in press reports.

For now, let us focus on the general significance of the meeting and a bit on what was not agreed and some clues as to what President Xi and President Trump might be thinking. This is not to detract from the agreements reached. For example, fentanyl precursors lead to the deaths of tens of thousands of Americans every year. And whereas China produces about 20 million metric tons of soybeans domestically, it imports more than 100 million metric tons a year. That is a huge market. And the delay of one year on export of rare earth minerals and magnets from China to the US relieves pressure on the US to find alternate suppliers around the world.

But quite frankly, the subject of fentanyl should never have been an issue. The International Narcotics Control Board (INCB) announced that effective December 3, 2024, international control of 18 additional drug precursors became fully effective. Essentially, the scheduling decision listed several closely related chemicals which could potentially be used by drug traffickers to circumvent existing controls. As the INCB noted, there is limited known legitimate use of the two fentanyl precursors and no known legitimate manufacture of and trade in the 16 precursors of amphetamine, methamphetamine and MDMA. The scheduling of these 18 synthetic drug precursors reflects the rapid expansion in illicit manufacture of synthetic drugs and the increasing sophistication of illicit drug manufacturing operations. So, one might well ask, why had China not already cracked down on these chemicals?

Russian oil and Taiwan

Two important issues on which there was either no discussion or no agreement, are the future of Taiwan and China’s purchase of Russian oil. Regarding Taiwan, Trump said it “never even came up as a subject.” This means that Trump did not raise the issue and neither did Xi. And it is by no means clear that China has agreed to stop buying Russian oil.

While it is not clear that American oil is intended to substitute for Russian oil, President Trump posted on his Truth Social account: “China also agreed that they will begin the process of purchasing American Energy. In fact, a very large-scale transaction may take place concerning the purchase of Oil and Gas from the Great State of Alaska. Chris Wright, Doug Burgum, and our respective Energy teams will be meeting to see if such an Energy Deal can be worked out.” It appears that what we have is an agreement to agree, which is how I interpret “begin the process of purchasing” which means talking about a potential deal.

This announcement does not remotely suggest that that the China-Russia partnership or bond that has been announced by President Xi and President Putin has been so easily ruptured by Trump. One can speculate that Xi is stringing Trump along, or alternatively, that Xi is setting up the threat of using an alternate energy supply source as leverage against Putin. A third take on this is that China’s energy needs are immense, and Russia alone cannot meet China’s needs.

As for Taiwan, the lack of discussion is not surprising. China has long maintained that Taiwan is a breakaway province that is part of China and must be treated as such by all and sundry, including the US. With the US President not bringing the issue up, Xi can hardly have been expected to discuss a subject that he believes is a Chinese internal matter with him. One need not read this as ominous, but it does show that China really does not care much what the US thinks when it comes to Taiwan. China is playing the long game here. To me, the most sensible take on this issue is that President Xi is not in any hurry to invade Taiwan, nor should he be. There is, of course, the rumble that he has apparently set a timetable for wresting control of Taiwan by 2027, but that rumble comes mostly from tea-leaf readers.

Reuters reports that Trump appealed to Xi to release Jimmy Lai – Hong Kong news tycoon – from jail. The Chinese government considers, as with Taiwan, all matters relating to its administration of Hong Kong to be an internal affair and not open for discussion. Trump declared during the presidential campaign, that he would “100%” get Jimmy Lai out of jail and out of China.

Trump did not reveal how Xi responded, but a Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson told a press briefing in Beijing that Lai was the “main planner and participant” in the “anti-China riots” in Hong Kong. He added: “The Chinese central government firmly supports the Hong Kong judiciary in performing its duties in accordance with the law.” We do not know how Xi responded to Trump in Korea, but the spokesperson put an end to any thoughts of accommodation by the Xi regime: “Hong Kong affairs are China’s internal affairs and brook no interference from external forces.” This is a straightforward rebuff of Trump’s plea.

China’s four red lines

Trump claims that Xi has assured him that Beijing will not attempt to unify Taiwan with mainland China while he (Trump) is in office. Trump said: “He has openly said, and his people have openly said at meetings, ‘We would never do anything while President Trump is president’, because they know the consequences.” Since Trump himself said Taiwan never came up at the Korea summit, if such an assurance were given, it must have come at some other time. The last in-person meeting between Trump and Xi was six years ago. The implication that Xi would consider invading Taiwan if Trump were not President, does not square with events during Biden’s tenure.

In any event, to underscore the point, China’s ambassador to the US Xie Feng said earlier this week, that Taiwan, democracy and human rights, political path and system, and right to development are “China’s four red lines,” and: “We hope the US side will avoid crossing them and causing trouble.”

Trump is facing competing pressures because companies like Nvidia want to sell their advanced chips to China. But there’s the issue of national security — US officials say they fear that Beijing could use high-end chips for military applications. The Wall Street Journal reports that shortly before the meeting in South Korea, advisers including Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Trump that the sales would threaten national security, boost China’s AI data-center capabilities and backfire on the US. The WSJ describes this as a torpedoing of Trump’s intent to be more flexible about sales of Nvidia chips to China. Perhaps in a state of pique, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang declared: “China is going to win the AI race.” He said western countries are burdened by their mindset and trapped in “cynicism.”

So, for all the fuss, there does not seem to be much of a change in the US-China relationship except perhaps that China is now exerting leverage by withholding rare-earth minerals and refusing to engage on Taiwan and Hong Kong. President Trump mentioned that President Xi would help end the war in Ukraine, a war that he promised he could end on day one. But why would Putin listen to Xi?

Cheerz…
Bwana

Mauritius Times ePaper Friday 7 November 2025