The Certainty of Uncertainty

“Plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose”

By Anil Madan

Here we are near the end of another year and, unless humanity does something utterly stupid in a day or two, we will enter 2026 not entirely unscathed but having survived despite ourselves.

Let me begin by saying that the most significant event of 2026 coming up is the 250th anniversary of the founding of America. For the first time in human history, a nation was established on the idea that all men are created equal, and that the governments are formed – with the consent of the governed — to secure to them their unalienable rights. This is to say that power flows from the people up, and not from the sovereign down. That proposition has been tested as the Supreme Court of the United States ruled that the President is immune from liability for official acts and, effectively, above the law, a top-down government, if you will.

AI Detection. Pic – Global RPH

The year 2026 will begin with the latest retest of the proposition which Abraham Lincoln, speaking at Gettysburg, said had been tested by the Civil War.

The ramifications for the world at large are enormous. Many scholars and observers assert that Republics last, on average, 250-300 years. Most of the world is governed without the consent of the governed. To be sure, elections are held, but just try running for office in China, Russia, Pakistan, Turkey, Belarus, or any number of countries, without the consent of the ruling government. (Parenthetically, I pause to note that I am cognizant of being on the American bandwagon. In a Washington Post column, Robin Givhan observed: “Patriotism is like the love that a parent has for a child; nationalism is akin to believing that one’s child can do no wrong.”)

America has much to offer the world. America has admittedly made mistakes. Yet America remains — if only we will let it — a force for good in the world. The President’s new National Security Strategy suggests that America will retrench in 2026. Is the world better and safer with or without America? A taste of Chinese dominance might provide the answer.

What my inner Nostradamus predicts

As we look forward to 2026, my inner Nostradamus tells me that whereas vaticination is entertaining, prophecy is a precarious undertaking. So, what will happen in:

* Ukraine – As I write this, Putin has accused Ukraine of targeting one of his rural residences. Ukraine vehemently denies this and calls it a fabrication. Trump says he’s very upset about it after Putin complained about the attack. Strange, that a man who sent 500 drones into Ukraine the previous evening should complain that they might try to fight back. Alas, this sort of thing will continue in 2026.

* Taiwan – will China ease its pressure on Taiwan or perhaps go the other way and attack the island nation? China just announced a major live-fire drill around Taiwan. This may be nothing more than outrage over an $11 billion arms sale the US agreed with Taiwan. The new National Security Strategy states that Taiwan is vital to US interests. So, let us not concede too much here.

* Gaza – Trump announced that reconstruction will start soon. The only reasonable prediction I can make here is that Saudi Arabia will get on board. The business opportunity is just too big. And Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) will find a way to declare that Hamas’ only exit to peace is to renounce violence. MBS in the role of a modern-day Gandhi or Martin Luther King, Jr. Who’d have thought it?

* Sudan – unfortunately this misery-drenched corner of Africa seems destined to remain so drenched and miserable. The palpable tragedy here is that there is no recognizable benefit to any third country, no matter which of the main protagonists prevails.

* Venezuela — Rumours and reports have suggested that Maduro is negotiating an exit. His days are numbered.

* Iran – President Trump just announced that he supports Israeli attacks on Iran’s missile rebuilding program and that if Iran tries to reconstitute its nuclear program, he will attack again. Iranian President Pezeshkian says that Iran is at full-scale war with the US, Israel, and Europe. Although some western media outlets tried to cast this as a declaration of war, it really was the lament of the victim. Expect the US and Europe to ratchet up the pressure on Iran. Runaway inflation and the falling value of the Iranian currency trigger protests that may well lead to the end of the regime.

* North Korea – Kim Jong Un remains an enigma. On the one hand, he has demonstrated that having nuclear capability gives a country cred. On the other hand, he has not found a way to leverage that for the benefit of the North Korean citizenry. But then, the welfare of his people was never his cause.

The truth is that what remains constant is man’s appetite for shortening the life of his fellow man. Through centuries of existence and conflict, humans have not learned, or don’t seem to care, that it is not necessary for any of us to be a catalyst to hasten the demise of the “other.” We seem to believe that differences in our skin colour, or the shapes of our eyes compel such action. If that is not enough, we come to believe that our religious faith compels us to eliminate those who worship different gods.

Hence “plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose.”

This means roughly that when inflation hits and you buy two items for $2 each, you get no change from a $5 bill no matter which items you choose because 2+2 now equals 5. The rate of inflation may come down, but prices remain high. This is because no one charges less than what the market pays, willingly or otherwise. So, I predict with some confidence that the great gulf in wealth between the haves and have-nots around the world will only widen. More of the available income that most people have will be dedicated to survival, not to acquisition. The few nations that have capital, notably China and the US will control the supply chains of the world. The US is now dangerously close to losing control, not so much because its virtually unlimited borrowing capacity is lost, but because China controls the supply of strategic resources that the US needs for its survival and as well, the supply of manufactured goods that Americans use every day. China’s control of global manufacturing makes it the indispensable factor in America’s consumer economy, with the notable exception of food.

This tells me that 2026 will be a year of profound changes in the US-China relationship. We already saw the beginnings of this play out when President Trump announced punitive tariffs on China which quietly responded with a ban on export of rare earth minerals to the US. In short order, there was a de facto truce: America’s tariffs were lowered or put on hold and bans on technology exports to China began to ease.

AI’s Promise

The promise of AI is enormous. But the part that makes the promise worthwhile is the harnessing of immense processing power that allows us to analyze vast databases, and perform calculations and simulations at rapid speed that mere humans cannot replicate. The promise of automating menial and repetitive jobs is obvious. But AI opens avenues, for example, to find new therapeutic drugs and possibly eliminating arduous clinical trials by virtual testing, for innovations in the use of materials, in new designs, and for using the power of the Internet to transfer knowledge and skills.

The promises of enhancing efficiency, eliminating or minimizing human error, detection of diseases early and hopefully in time for therapeutic intervention, and more to mimic and enhance human creativity, are immense. 2026 will be a year of exponential advances in the adoption of AI-based solutions. But we will also come to learn that the databases used by computers include fiction and information that is incorrect. We will learn that machines, like humans, are prone to fantasy and prevarication. We will learn that we trust machines at our peril, just as we trust politicians at our peril.

The US’s National Security Strategy

The National Security Strategy suggests a more aggressive America with respect to both its sphere of influence, which it defines as the Western Hemisphere, and as well the shipping lanes from Taiwan to the second island chain. The idea that China does not conduct itself in accord with the so-called “rules-based international order” is an entrenched part of the NSS.

The statement in the NSS that: “We will also maintain our longstanding declaratory policy on Taiwan, meaning that the United States does not support any unilateral change to the status quo in the Taiwan Strait,” suggests no backing down. This is based on not only on Taiwan’s dominance of semiconductor production, but mostly because Taiwan provides direct access to the Second Island Chain.  The NSS declares that a related security challenge is the potential for any competitor to control the South China Sea. This could allow a potentially hostile power to impose a toll system over one of the world’s most vital lanes of commerce or — worse — to close and reopen it at will. Clearly this is a reference to China.

What remains to be seen in 2026 is whether the US will find rapprochement with Europe or continue to treat its European allies as wayward children risking civilizational erasure. The NSS suggests that the solution to Europe’s political turmoil is through election of right-wing party candidates. The goal here may be no more than the fostering of more stringent immigration controls. The adoption of such policies would ameliorate criticism of the Trump administration’s tough policies on immigration.

Ironically, amid all this distancing, the US will welcome the world to the FIFA World Cup. Perhaps the point is simply to kick the ball down the road. As I said, plus ça change…

Happy New Year!

Cheerz…
Bwana

Mauritius Times ePaper Friday 31 December 2025