Blocking the Strait of Hormuz – Iran’s Nuclear Option

By Anil Madan

The chant has been ringing for years. Iran must not be allowed to have a nuclear bomb. The Israelis have persistently emphasized that this is existential for the survival of their State. The Gulf nations see a nuclear armed Iran as a threat. With nuclear bombs, Iran would be able to bully and extort its neighbours with missiles, drones and unleashed proxies. Underscoring the seriousness of the issue, two and one-half years ago, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) said if Iran gets a nuclear weapon, “we have to get one.”

Iran War. Pic – Special Euresia

It is no flight of fancy to imagine that Israeli Prime Minister emphasized the desirability of forestalling nuclear proliferation in the Middle East, as a reason for urging the US to attack Iran. President Trump’s oft-expressed aversion to nuclear weapons is well known. Such an appeal would have resonated with him.

Saudi Arabia’s nonproliferation argument

In 2023, Saudi Arabia and Iran reestablished diplomatic relations under China’s auspices as the go-between. So, it came as somewhat of a surprise that this seeming rapprochement was not. The Washington Post reported that MBS privately urged the US President to strike Iran militarily, while publicly urging diplomacy and declaring that he would not allow such an attack to be launched from Saudi soil. Similar messages were said to have been delivered by MBS’s brother to Trump.

One can well imagine that MBS too would have made the same nonproliferation argument to Trump. The goal was apparently to protect Saudi oil facilities from retaliatory attacks by Iran.

It turns out that Iran had two options as devastating as a nuclear bomb. These two options — nuclear options, if you will — are (i) control of the narrow shipping channel known as the Strait of Hormuz, and (ii) threatening to destroy the oil and LNG infrastructure of Iran’s Gulf neighbours that lie within range of Iran’s missiles and drones.

As it turned out, America’s joining with Israel in attacks on Iran did not protect the Saudi or other Gulf states. Iranian strikes by drone and missile came anyway. As of ten days ago, Iranian attacks caused heavy damage to Qatar’s LNG plant — the largest such facility in the world –, hit a Saudi refinery, forced a shutdown of UAE’s LNG facilities and caused fires to erupt at two Kuwaiti refineries. Turkey, Bahrain, Jordan and Oman too were later targeted. Some attacks involved hundreds of missiles and drones. How long Iran can keep this up is unknown.

It remains unknown how long the Gulf nations, the world, and President Trump can sustain this trajectory. Trump appears to be seeking an off-ramp, perhaps spurred by a sense of surprise at the sheer ferocity and duration of the Iranian response.

Responding to a Fox News reporter, Trump expressed surprise at Iran’s attacks on the Gulf countries: “Nobody. Nobody. The greatest experts — nobody thought they were going to hit,” he said. It is little wonder that the sequalae now roiling the world’s markets are disturbing to the US president who sees his popularity at home being hit hard, and a perplexed world wondering what he will do next.

It is not unreasonable to expect an escalatory response from Turkey and the Gulf countries. Indeed, because of Iran’s attacks, Saudi Arabia has declared Iran’s military attaché and some embassy staff members persona non grata and ordered them to leave the Kingdom. That is a mild rebuke. There will be more escalation in the days ahead.

Last Saturday, a regional summit was held in Riyadh. Participants, including Turkey, issued a joint statement criticizing Iran for its attacks on their territory and particularly for targeting civilian infrastructure. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, speaking on behalf of the group said that the Gulf countries have issued their “last warnings” to Iran and would be forced to retaliate if the Iranian attacks continue. “The Gulf countries are questioning why Iran is targeting them in this war,” Fidan said. “They say, ‘We have nothing to do with the outbreak of this war; that is a separate matter.’ They also say, ‘The attack against us is unjust, and we need to respond to it.’”

History’s greatest energy shock

Meanwhile, Israel and Iran continue to attack each other’s territory, and Israel continues to pound Lebanon with airstrikes in an effort to dislodge Hezbollah.

The knock-on effects of this crisis cannot be overstated or exaggerated. As many have intimated, this is the greatest energy shock that the world has seen, and its aftereffects will be profound and felt for years to come.

In my previous comments, I referred to the impacts on shipments of oil and LNG to the nations of the world. I mentioned how outbound shipments of refined petroleum products, helium, sulfur, fertilizer, and inbound shipments of food, medical supplies, medicine, and the entire tourism and business-hub economies of the Middle East have been ground to a halt.

It would take too long to list all the hardships being visited on the world’s population. Some examples are lack of cooking gas in India, an emergency declared in the Philippines, rationing as far away as Australia, soaring gasoline and cooking gas prices worldwide, and the prospect of soaring inflation as businesses grapple with frightening escalations of raw materials prices, energy costs, and supply chain lockups.

To keep things in perspective, note that almost 90% of the oil and LNG flowing out of the Strait of Hormuz goes to Asian countries.

This crisis has created a windfall of oil profits for Russia and Iran too, as President Trump has lifted sanctions on the sale of oil by those countries.

The biggest problem, however, is finding an off-ramp that keeps Iran from getting a nuclear arsenal. Iran is unlikely to agree. At least, the present regime — what is left of the present regime — is unlikely to agree. Although President Trump declared that the US has already caused regime change in Iran, the commentator Karim Sadjadpour wryly observed that what we have is nothing more than a personnel change.

If the word “existential” has any meaning, the ruling group in Iran surely grasps that they are in an existential battle.

Kim Jong Un of North Korea castigated the US for its “unjustified” attack on Iran and declared that this had vindicated his country’s decision never to give up its nuclear weapons.

As President Trump calls for a peace deal with Iran, one thing seems certain. If any vestige of the ruling Ayatollah theocracy remains in power, Iran will have nuclear weapons sooner rather than later.

Existential off-ramp

Reports circulating suggest that the US has proffered a 15-point peace plan to Iran. As expected, Iran has rejected it. Iran insists on its right to refine uranium for peaceful (wink-wink) purposes, seeks guarantees that there will be no future attacks on its territory, and wants reparations for the damage done by US and Israeli bombs.

Putting aside that no guarantee against a future attack by either Israel or the US has any meaning, and if some means for transferring money to satisfy the reparations issue, one way or another, can be found, it seems unrealistic for Iran to agree that it will never have a nuclear weapon. Or maybe not. The Wall Street Journal reports: “The US and Israel have temporarily removed two senior Iranian officials from their list of officials to eliminate as they explore possible peace talks, US officials said. Iranian parliamentary speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi have been removed from the target list for up to four or five days as President Trump opens the door to high-level negotiations for ending the war, the officials said.”

Is it possible that Ghalibaf and Araghchi will have an existential off-ramp and find a way to ink a peace deal to save their own lives? Of course, the public discourse will be about how they saved Iran’s honour.

Or is giving in to Iran’s nuclear ambitions the only way that this conflict will resolve short of regime elimination?

There is no 15-point plan that provides the answer. At least not one that Israel can abide.

Cheerz…
Bwana

Mauritius Times ePaper Friday 27 March 2026