A Shifting Geopolitical Landscape

It is difficult to tell if Trump as President is going to cause more chaos at home than turmoil abroad. But it seems we are all in for an interesting ride

By Anil Madan

President Xi Jinping of China, speaking through an interpreter in Lima, Peru last Saturday said: “China’s goal of a stable, healthy and sustainable China-US relationship remains unchanged.” The Wall Street Journal reports that China “stressed the sentiment in a series of dispatches quoting Xi published by the government’s official Xinhua News Agency that reiterated the phrase “has not changed” four times in relation to bilateral ties.” One might think that President Xi was speaking to President-elect Donald Trump when he stressed that the US and China should interject certainty and positive energy into a turbulent world. But of course, Trump is not yet the next President although he soon will be. So, President Xi was speaking indirectly to Trump.

“It is well known that President-elect Trump has proposed massive new tariffs on goods imported from China into the US. Already, there are reports of Chinese companies finishing their products in south Asian countries to avoid US tariffs. China’s exports to the US remain a significant portion of its overall exports, but trade with southeast Asia, Latin America, and Europe continues to grow…” Pic – Market Watch

In April of this year, Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen made these remarks in a detailed speech on US-China relations: “During conversations this week, I underscored again that the United States does not seek to decouple from China. Our two economies are deeply integrated, and a wholesale separation would be disastrous for both of our economies. Even as we take actions to diversify our supply chains, we seek to preserve the broader trade and investment relationship that can benefit American workers and firms. China is a key market for American products and services. And competition between our firms can spur greater dynamism and innovation in American industries. The American businesses that I spoke to in Guangzhou underscored the significant benefits of a healthy economic relationship.”

She went on to speak of managing China’s overcapacity in supplying the world with manufactured goods.

President Xi and Secretary Yellen, on behalf of President Biden were sending the same message.

It is significant that President Xi should have repeated it to an outgoing President who will soon have no influence whatever on US policy towards China.

It is well known that President-elect Trump has proposed massive new tariffs on goods imported from China into the US. Already, there are reports of Chinese companies finishing their products in south Asian countries to avoid US tariffs. China’s exports to the US remain a significant portion of its overall exports, but trade with southeast Asia, Latin America, and Europe continues to grow.

It is significant, therefore, that President Xi has attempted to send a signal of cooperation clearly intended for Trump.

Russia-Ukraine war & Putin’s threat

Trump has said that he would end the war between Russia and Ukraine in one day. Notwithstanding the fear that Trump will pressure Ukraine to cede the Ukrainian territory that Putin has seized, annexed, or controls, it appears that Europeans are now much less resistant to a negotiated peace now than they were when they believed that with sheer determination, Ukraine would prevail.

The harsh reality is that Ukraine’s forces have fought a brave battle of attrition. But they continue to have their own struggle with a large chunk of its population displaced, a reluctant citizenry unwilling to join the armed forces, and short supplies of aircraft, arms, ammunition and missiles to fend off a relentless enemy. And now that enemy is bolstered by troops from North Korea, thus giving Putin more fodder.

In marking the 1000th day of the start of Putin’s war against Ukraine, western media outlets did not mention President Biden’s words that all but invited Putin to attack when he declared that the US would defend every inch of NATO territory. The message was clear: Ukraine is not NATO territory. The message was also clear that the US and NATO did not want to engage with Russia’s nuclear arsenal.

It is somewhat surprising that Biden and his counterparts in NATO and Europe did not recognize Putin’s then and subsequent saber-rattling as bluster.

Now, as President Biden has finally authorized the use of US Atacms missiles deep inside Russia, Putin has released a revised Russian nuclear doctrine.

Although the revision has been in the works for some time, the frenzied western media was quick to link the announcement of the new doctrine to Ukraine’s first use of the Atacms missiles to strike inside Russian territory. The western media have suggested that Putin’s actions are a thinly veiled attempt to intimidate the US and NATO countries from increasing their support of Ukraine and an attempt to limit the kind of weapons they should provide to President Zelenskiy.

Moscow’s new nuclear doctrine allows for Russia to respond with nuclear assets if it is a nuclear state that attacks it directly or aids an attack by a non-nuclear country.

How seriously should this “threat” be taken? Putin has long been rattling his nuclear saber. So far, it has emphatically been an attempt to intimidate and deter the U.S., NATO, and the rest of Europe from coming to Ukraine’s aid. Until now, the level of aid supplied by the U.S., NATO and European countries, while expensive for them, has not assured Ukraine of victory. But it has significantly set Russia back even though a war of attrition favours Russia’s forces and assets that vastly outnumber Ukraine’s.

One can never rule out a crazy or desperate move by Putin. Indeed, Putin does not need a new nuclear doctrine to justify his actions. But in a curious way, he seems to need the imprimatur of legal legitimacy, even if manufactured, for his actions. Thus, he goes to great lengths to have sham and rigged elections, sham and rigged trials of his opponents and detractors, and a general need to convince the world that he is acting in accordance with the law. Therefore, discounting his promulgation of a new doctrine is not wise.

What is Putin up to? There have been reports that Putin is open to negotiations suggested by Trump to end the war. President Zelensky suggests that Putin merely seeks legitimacy on the international stage and is willing to seek that legitimacy by sitting at the negotiating table with the likes of Trump and other negotiators. But, in the end, Zelensky says that Putin is not to be trusted.

Whom to believe? Unfortunately, it may not matter. Trump will soon be in a position to cut aid to Ukraine and to pressure Zelensky to accept a ceasefire leading to a peace, however ephemeral that may be, to save his nation. The quid pro quo will likely be giving up NATO membership forever, and perhaps even cession of part of its wheat fields.

But, if one thinks that Putin is ready to capitulate to Trump, think again. President-elect Trump’s call for restraint by Putin was met with a heavy missile barrage sent into Ukraine.

The Middle East & Taiwan

 In the Middle East, news came that Qatar had asked Hamas leaders to leave the Gulf state. There is also news that Iran and Hezbollah are ready to accept a ceasefire. Israel, as one might expect, shows little interest, but that is the posture they must take. After all, the idea that any ceasefire would simply allow Iran to replenish its proxies and from them to reconstitute and rearm has to be anathema to Israel.

One can be sure there is change afoot. Expect Trump to tighten sanctions on Iran and squeeze as much as he can of its revenue. Saudi Arabia faces the prospect of dwindling cash reserves as the price of oil has dropped dramatically. Expect to see more pressure on Saudi Arabia to establish formal relations with Israel.

Taiwan remains a dangerous spot in the world. No one knows what President Xi will attempt in terms of isolating, or simply conquering the island. President-elect Trump has expressed disdain for Taiwan’s expectations of American support, even accusing the island nation of stealing America’s chips business.

At this point, it is difficult to tell if Trump as President is going to cause more chaos at home than turmoil abroad. But it seems we are all in for an interesting ride.

Cheerz…
Bwana

Mauritius Times ePaper Friday 22 November 2024