{"id":39014,"date":"2023-11-24T17:00:46","date_gmt":"2023-11-24T13:00:46","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.mauritiustimes.com\/mt\/?p=39014"},"modified":"2023-11-24T17:00:46","modified_gmt":"2023-11-24T13:00:46","slug":"daily-global-temperature-records-keep-breaking-its-a-sign-were-on-a-rapidly-warming-planet","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.mauritiustimes.com\/mt\/daily-global-temperature-records-keep-breaking-its-a-sign-were-on-a-rapidly-warming-planet\/","title":{"rendered":"Daily global temperature records keep breaking. It\u2019s a sign we\u2019re on a rapidly warming planet"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/em><\/span><\/h4>\n

<\/h4>\n

In September we went past 1.5 degrees. In November, we tipped over 2 degrees for the first time. What\u2019s going on?<\/em><\/span><\/h4>\n
\n

In September, the world passed 1.5\u00b0C of warming. Two months later, we hit 2\u00b0C of warming. It\u2019s fair to wonder what is going on.<\/span><\/p>\n

What we\u2019re seeing is not runaway climate change. These are daily spikes, not the long-term pattern we would need to say the world is now 2 degrees hotter than it was in the pre-industrial period.<\/span><\/p>\n

These first breaches of temperature limits are the loudest alarms yet. They come as the United Nations Environment Program warns the world is still on a path to a \u201chellish\u201d 3\u00b0C of warming by the end of the century.<\/span><\/p>\n

But they do not signal our failure. The sudden spike in warming in 2023 comes from a combination of factors \u2013 climate change, a strong El Ni\u00f1o, sea ice failing to reform after winter, reduced aerosol pollution and increased solar activity. There are also minor factors such as the aftermath of the volcanic eruption near Tonga.<\/span><\/p>\n

How significant are these factors?<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/span>The earth is warming faster than scientists previously\u00a0 thought scientists say, and the window is closing to avoid catastrophic\u00a0 outcomes. Pic – CNN<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

1. Climate change<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

This is by far the biggest factor. What many of us don\u2019t recognise is how recent our intense period of emissions is. If you were born in 1983, fully 50% of all of humanity\u2019s emissions have gone into the atmosphere since your birth. Human emissions and other activities have so far contributed about 1.2\u00b0C of warming.<\/span><\/p>\n

Greenhouse gases trap heat, which is why the Earth is not a snowball. But the 2 trillion tonnes of fossil carbon we\u2019ve taken from underground and put back in the atmosphere are trapping more heat. And more heat. And will continue to do so until we stop burning fossil fuels for heat or power.<\/span><\/p>\n

2. El Ni\u00f1o<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

The El Ni\u00f1o-Southern Oscillation climate cycle in the Pacific has the biggest natural influence on climate. That\u2019s because the Pacific is huge, accounting for 30% of Earth\u2019s surface. When in the El Ni\u00f1o phase, the seas off South America heat up. This, in turn, usually makes average global temperatures hotter.<\/span><\/p>\n

Right now, there\u2019s a dangerous heatwave in Brazil, where heat and humidity combined makes it feel like 60\u00b0C. The intense heat contributed to the death of a fan at Taylor Swift\u2019s Rio concert last week.<\/span><\/p>\n

El Ni\u00f1o will likely peak in the next two months. But its effects may well persist throughout 2024, driving global average temperatures higher by perhaps 0.15\u00b0C.<\/span><\/p>\n

3. Antarctic Sea ice isn\u2019t bouncing back<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

The declines in Arctic Sea ice are well known. But now Antarctic Sea ice, too, is failing to recover. Normally, the ring of frozen seawater around the ice continent reaches maximum extent in September. But this year\u2019s maximum is well below any previous year.<\/span><\/p>\n

As we enter summer, that means more dark water will be exposed. And since dark surfaces absorb more heat while white ones reflect it, it means still more heat will go into the oceans rather than back out to space.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u00a04. <\/strong><\/span>Increased solar activity<\/strong><\/p>\n

Our Sun runs on a roughly 11-year cycle, going between lower and higher output. The solar maximum was forecast for 2025 and a clear increase is occurring this year. This brings spectacular auroras \u2013 even in the Southern Hemisphere, where residents have seen auroras as far inland as Ballarat, in Victoria.<\/span><\/p>\n

Solar maximums add extra heat. But not much \u2013 the effect is only around 0.05\u00b0C, about a third of an El Ni\u00f1o.<\/span><\/p>\n

5. The volcanic hangover<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Normally, volcanic eruptions cool the planet, as their vast plumes of aerosols block sunlight. But the largest volcanic eruption this century near Tonga in January 2022 did the opposite.<\/span><\/p>\n

That\u2019s because the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha\u2019apai volcano was under the sea. Its explosive force evaporated vast volumes of seawater \u2013 and water vapour is a greenhouse gas. While some sceptics like to point to this eruption as the root cause of our recent spike in warming, the Tonga eruption is a blip \u2013 it will add an estimated 0.035\u00b0C for about five years.<\/span><\/p>\n

6. Cutting aerosol pollution<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

In 2020, new international shipping rules came into force, mandating low-sulphur fuels. This cut sulphur dioxide emissions by about 10%. That\u2019s good for health. But aerosols in the atmosphere can actually block heat. Cutting pollution may have added to warming. But again, the effect seems small, adding an estimated 0.05\u00b0C of warming by 2050.<\/span><\/p>\n

What should we take from this?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

The climate is enormously complex. We should see the first day 2\u00b0C warmer than the same day in the pre-industrial period as a stark warning \u2013 but not as a sign to give up.<\/span><\/p>\n

In short, this isn\u2019t a step change. It\u2019s a combination of factors which has driven this surge. Some of those, like El Ni\u00f1o, are cyclical and will switch back.<\/span><\/p>\n

But as negotiators prepare for next week\u2019s COP28 climate talks, it\u2019s yet another sign that we cannot relent.<\/span><\/p>\n

We are \u2013 at last \u2013 seeing signs of real progress in the clean energy and clean transport roll out. This year, we may even see emissions from power generation finally peak and then begin to fall.<\/span><\/p>\n

So \u2013 we haven\u2019t failed, yet. But we are on a rapidly warming planet \u2013 and we can now clearly see the effect, even in these new daily temperature records.<\/span><\/p>\n

Andrew King<\/span>
\n<\/strong>Senior Lecturer in Climate Science
\nThe University of Melbourne<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

Mauritius Times ePaper Friday 24 November 2023<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In September we went past 1.5 degrees. In November, we tipped over 2 degrees for the first time. What\u2019s going on? In September, the world passed 1.5\u00b0C of warming. Two months later, we hit 2\u00b0C of warming. It\u2019s fair to wonder what is going on. What we\u2019re seeing is not runaway climate change. These are […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":139,"featured_media":39015,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[4367],"tags":[1360,2800,16269,269,3303,35448],"class_list":["post-39014","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-environment","tag-climate-change","tag-el-nino","tag-energy","tag-environment","tag-global-warming","tag-greenhouse-gas-emissions-ghg"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.mauritiustimes.com\/mt\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/C-Climate-change-report.jpg?fit=1200%2C798&ssl=1","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p8QzSF-a9g","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.mauritiustimes.com\/mt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39014","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.mauritiustimes.com\/mt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.mauritiustimes.com\/mt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mauritiustimes.com\/mt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/139"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mauritiustimes.com\/mt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=39014"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.mauritiustimes.com\/mt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39014\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mauritiustimes.com\/mt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/39015"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.mauritiustimes.com\/mt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=39014"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mauritiustimes.com\/mt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=39014"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.mauritiustimes.com\/mt\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=39014"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}