{"id":36375,"date":"2022-12-30T16:49:53","date_gmt":"2022-12-30T12:49:53","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.mauritiustimes.com\/mt\/?p=36375"},"modified":"2023-01-05T19:14:26","modified_gmt":"2023-01-05T15:14:26","slug":"5-elections-to-watch-in-2023-whats-at-stake-as-millions-head-to-the-ballot-box-around-the-globe","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.mauritiustimes.com\/mt\/5-elections-to-watch-in-2023-whats-at-stake-as-millions-head-to-the-ballot-box-around-the-globe\/","title":{"rendered":"5 elections to watch in 2023 \u2013 what\u2019s at stake as millions head to the ballot box around the globe"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/em><\/span><\/h4>\n

<\/h4>\n

Zimbabwe, Turkey, Argentina, Pakistan and Nigeria all have presidential or general elections in 2023<\/em><\/span><\/h4>\n

<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/span>Supporters of the ruling All Progressive Congress. Pic – Getty Images<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Predicting the outcome of national elections can be a mug\u2019s game. Polls are\u00a0often wrong, and second-guessing how people will vote months down the line can leave even the most savvy election specialist with egg on their face.<\/span><\/p>\n

In short, there are too many unknowns \u2013 the state of the economy, late political shocks and even the weather on election day. What is known is that 2023 has its fair share on consequential races. Democracy is on the ballot in a number of nations, while common themes \u2013 such as the handling of inflation and corruption \u2013 may determine how incumbent governments and presidents fare as the ballot box. Five experts provide the lowdown on what is at stake in key national votes in 2023.<\/span><\/p>\n

Here are their psephological pearls of wisdom:<\/span><\/p>\n

Nigeria (Feb. 25)
\n<\/u><\/strong>Carl LeVan, professor of comparative and regional studies at American University<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n

Some of the campaign dynamics heading into the Nigerian presidential election will seem familiar to those who follow the country, with politics still deeply entwined with\u00a0the country\u2019s geographic-religious divide\u00a0between a predominantly Muslim north and its Christian south. And after eight years of a northerner \u2013 Muhammadu Buhari \u2013 holding the presidency, debate revolves around whether power should \u201cshift\u201d to the south.<\/span><\/p>\n

Buhari, in line with the constitution, is stepping down after serving two four-year terms \u2013 and that changes the electoral landscape. For only the second time since the transition to civilian rule in 1999, there\u2019s no incumbent presidential candidate.<\/span><\/p>\n

Having no incumbent seeking reelection has historically\u00a0increased the chances of opposition party victory\u00a0in Africa. Arguably for the first time since the 1980s, each of the three major ethnic groups in Nigeria has produced a serious presidential contender: Atiku Abubakar who is of Hausa-Fulani descent, the Yoruba former Lagos governor Bola Tinubu and former Anambra governor Peter Obi, a member of the Igbo.<\/span><\/p>\n

While this might seem like progress \u2013 and has advanced inter-ethnic cooperation in the presidential campaign \u2013 it also dramatically increases the risk of no clear winner\u00a0under the constitution\u2019s formula that requires both a plurality of votes and a geographical distribution of support. A runoff has never before taken place, and the electoral commission would have only a week to organize it.<\/span><\/p>\n

Security and poverty are key electoral themes. Buhari won in 2015 by prioritizing\u00a0economic growth, anti-corruption and the defeat of the world\u2019s deadliest insurgency, Boko Haram. Yet today,\u00a0more than 80 million Nigerians remain in poverty, while insecurity ravages the country. The\u00a0scale of violence plaguing Nigeria\u00a0has not been seen since the civil war ended in 1970, while the geographical scope is unprecedented. Meanwhile,\u00a0only 15% of Nigerians\u00a0feel more loyalty to their nation than to their ethnic group.<\/span><\/p>\n

This raises the specter of electoral violence and voter intimidation in the run-up to the Feb. 23 vote. Political violence, both between and within political parties,\u00a0increased in 2022. Despite this, candidates have been largely running on hopeful messages about economic diversification, anti-corruption and opportunities for Nigeria\u2019s youth.<\/span><\/p>\n

Turkey (June 18)
\n<\/u><\/strong>Ahmet Kuru, professor of political science at San Diego State University<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n

People in Turkey tend to call every presidential election historic \u2013 but the June 2023 election will truly be historic. It will determine whether the\u00a0increasingly autocratic rule\u00a0of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will continue to dominate the country\u2019s politics or not. What\u2019s at stake is not simply \u201cpolitics\u201d in the narrow sense of the term, but also the direction in economic policy, religion, education and many other fields.<\/span><\/p>\n

If Erdogan wins, it could portend a further erosion of the remaining opposition in Turkish public life, especially given his\u00a0past record of authoritarianism and vengefulness. Indeed, there is already a suspicion that potential presidential candidates are being targeted, with the\u00a0popular mayor of Istanbul being sentenced to prison\u00a0in December \u2013 a conviction that if held up on appeal would bar him from running for any political office.<\/span><\/p>\n

The danger is the Turkish opposition will lose hope for the future. It could also\u00a0exacerbate the country\u2019s \u201cbrain drain\u201d problem\u00a0\u2013 as well-educated people, including medical doctors, academics, and businesspeople, migrate to Western countries, weakening the opposition at home.<\/span><\/p>\n

An Erdogan loss would be hugely consequential. Those who have been silenced under his rule will be able to speak up again.\u00a0Over a hundred thousand\u00a0people have been jailed\u00a0as part of Erdogan\u2019s political purge. It would not surprise me that in the event of an Erdogan loss, legal action is taken against him and his civil servants over alleged abuses and against his\u00a0crony-capitalists\u00a0over\u00a0alleged corruption.<\/span><\/p>\n

The outcome of the election will also determine the future of religion-state relations. Turkey\u2019s\u00a0Directorate of Religious Affairs, which controls 80,000 mosques, is a major ally of Erdogan. Any change in the administration is likely to result in curtailing of the directorate\u2019s powers.<\/span><\/p>\n

The 2023 presidential election will be fought over politics, economics and religion. If Erdogan wins, he will frame himself as the second founder of Turkey, after\u00a0Mustafa Kemal Ataturk. If he loses, his political, business, and religious allies will face the risk of being expunged.<\/span><\/p>\n

Zimbabwe (likely July-August)
\n<\/u><\/strong>Miles Tendi, associate professor of politics at the University of Oxford<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n

The 2023 election in Zimbabwe will be the second national vote to take place after the downfall of the country\u2019s former leader Robert Mugabe.<\/span><\/p>\n

The country\u2019s last election, in 2018, occurred a year after\u00a0a military coup\u00a0ended Robert Mugabe\u2019s\u00a0oppresive 37-year-long leadership. But contrary to the hopes of many Zimbabweans and foreign governments, that ballot\u00a0did not prove to be a momentous break\u00a0from the country\u2019s extensive history of disputed and violent elections \u2013 underlining that powerful systemic problems, such as the conflation of the ruling ZANU PF party and the state, generate flawed elections in Zimbabwe.<\/span><\/p>\n

Whether Zimbabwe can finally stage an election that is universally accepted as credible is one of the key issues in 2023. A credible election in itself will not bring about consequential political, economic and social reforms. But Western states and international donors\u00a0such as the International Monetary Fund\u00a0will be looking for an unblemished national vote as a prerequisite to earnest economic and diplomatic re-engagement with Zimbabwe after years of strained relations.<\/span><\/p>\n

Observers will also be hoping for improvements on women\u2019s political rights. The\u00a0gendered nature of political leadership, violence, election campaigns and voting behavior\u00a0have precluded equal representation for women in Zimbabwean politics. Only 26 of the 210 constituencies in the 2018 parliamentary election were won by women candidates. Although four women ran for president in 2018,\u00a0none managed more than 4% of the vote share.<\/span><\/p>\n

The future of opposition politics is also on the ballot. Since 2018, the main opposition\u00a0Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) party has had to contend\u00a0with\u00a0state repression, internal splits and underfunding. In the intervening years it has failed to get large numbers of new voters onto the electoral register.<\/span><\/p>\n

If the ruling ZANU PF party pulls off the overwhelming election victory it is working towards, it is likely that the opposition will be further saddled with division and disillusionment, posing an existential threat to the kind of vibrant opposition politics led by the MDC in the past two decades. And with no strong opposition to challenge and keep a check on ZANU PF, the danger is authoritarian rule will be solidified.<\/span><\/p>\n

Argentina (October 29)
\n<\/u><\/strong>Eduardo Gamarra, professor of politics and international relations at Florida International University<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n

Even with a\u00a0World Cup to savour, many Argentinians are pretty gloomy going into the 2023 election year \u2013 for good reason. The nation\u2019s\u00a0economy has been on the skids\u00a0for a long time and it has one of the\u00a0highest per capita debts\u00a0in Latin America. On top of this there are\u00a0sky-high inflation,\u00a0low wages\u00a0and poor growth \u2013 all worsened by the government\u2019s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic.<\/span><\/p>\n

Not all of these problems are the sole making of President Alberto Fern\u00e1ndez and his powerful vice president, Cristina Fern\u00e1ndez de Kirchner \u2013 both from the center-left Peronist faction. In fact, former President Mauricio Macri racked up\u00a0massive levels of debt to the IMF\u00a0before being voted out in 2019. But it is fair to say that Fern\u00e1ndez and Fern\u00e1ndez de Kirchner have been unable to solve the country\u2019s economic problems.<\/span><\/p>\n

Moreover, the pair have been plagued by other problems, notably corruption \u2013 both old-style political patronage and modern corruption based in\u00a0drug trafficking\u00a0throughout the country.<\/span><\/p>\n

Indeed on Dec. 6, 2022, Fern\u00e1ndez de Kirchner was\u00a0sentenced to six years in jail\u00a0in a scandal over a kickback scheme that saw public contracts go to a friend in return for bribes.<\/span><\/p>\n

Some are even predicting that the combination of mishandling the economy and the corruption scandal could bring an end to Peronism,\u00a0the political philosophy\u00a0that has governed Argentina for much of last 70 years. Indeed the Peronists appear to be struggling with unifying around a candidate to contest the election.<\/span><\/p>\n

Meanwhile, the party of Mauricio Macri\u00a0is similarly split, with the former president facing strong challenges from within his own party.<\/span><\/p>\n

These political and economic circumstances may favor a third contended: Javier Milei, a\u00a0populist libertarian\u00a0who has been rising in the polls and whose brusque style has\u00a0drawn comparisons with Donald Trump.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pakistan (by end of 2023)
\n<\/u><\/strong>Ayesha Jalal, professor of history at Tufts University<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n

Pakistani elections are all about power. In particular, this one will be all about whether\u00a0ousted Prime Minister Imran Khan\u00a0can get\u00a0the two-third majority he says he wants\u00a0to govern Pakistan. Anything less will not satisfy the former national cricket star.<\/span><\/p>\n

A big question is when the elections will take place. In Pakistan, general elections are not held under an incumbent government. Instead, an interim government \u2013 typically made up of technocrats \u2013 takes over with an election\u00a0having to take place within 90 days.<\/span><\/p>\n

But with the ruling coalition seemingly intent on holding on to power for as long as possible while the country faces\u00a0an economic crisis,\u00a0environmental disaster\u00a0and a\u00a0credibility crisis\u00a0it is unclear when the national assembly will dissolve and an interim government take over. And that could mean pushing the election toward the end of the year.<\/span><\/p>\n

Either way, it will be a consequential election. It remains to be seen if the current coalition government \u2013 which\u00a0ousted Khan\u2019s Tehreek-e-Insaf party\u00a0last year \u2013 will hold together, as it\u00a0consists of a number of parties.<\/span><\/p>\n

Khan has said he wants a two-third majority to bring about the constitutional changes he would like. So if he fails to get that, will he still be satisfied?<\/span><\/p>\n

Either way, the 2023 election is unlikely to be the answer to Pakistan\u2019s woes. Whoever is in charge after will need to paper over the economic cracks with the\u00a0help of the International Monetary Fund; without a further bailout, Pakistan won\u2019t have the liquidity it needs to function.<\/span><\/p>\n

You can never rule out electoral violence. Pakistan is\u00a0awash with guns\u00a0and is very polarized. Violence\u00a0marred the election in 2013\u00a0and there has been recent violence in northern Pakistan as well as the\u00a0shooting of Khan at a rally.<\/span><\/p>\n

That said, the hope is the nation\u2019s security forces can keep a lid on violence during the election.<\/span><\/p>\n

Blessing-Miles Tendi<\/span><\/strong>
\nAssociate Professor in the Politics of Africa, <\/span>
\nUniversity of Oxford<\/span><\/p>\n

Ahmet T. Kuru<\/span><\/strong>
\nProfessor of Political Science, <\/span>
\nSan Diego State University<\/span><\/p>\n

Ayesha Jalal<\/span><\/strong>
\nProfessor of History, <\/span>
\nTufts University<\/span><\/p>\n

Carl LeVan<\/span><\/strong>
\nProfessor of Comparative and Regional studies, <\/span>
\nAmerican University<\/span><\/p>\n

Eduardo Gamarra<\/strong><\/span>
\nProfessor of Politics and International Relations, <\/span>
\nFlorida International University<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

Mauritius Times ePaper Friday 30 December 2022<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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