{"id":35894,"date":"2022-10-21T14:59:34","date_gmt":"2022-10-21T10:59:34","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.mauritiustimes.com\/mt\/?p=35894"},"modified":"2022-10-21T14:59:34","modified_gmt":"2022-10-21T10:59:34","slug":"how-will-china-interact-with-the-world-over-the-next-5-years","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.mauritiustimes.com\/mt\/how-will-china-interact-with-the-world-over-the-next-5-years\/","title":{"rendered":"How will China interact with the world over the next 5 years?"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/em><\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

A Chinese studies expert analyses Xi Jinping\u2019s 104-minute speech opening the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China<\/em><\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

The 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, currently underway in Beijing, is China\u2019s most significant political event in half a decade.<\/span><\/p>\n

Like the pre-election leaders\u2019 debates in Western democracies, the party congress, held once every five years, provides valuable opportunities for us to learn more about the country\u2019s political leaders and their policies.<\/span><\/p>\n

It\u2019s unlikely any heated political debate will occur during the congress, as most political arrangements are made behind the scenes beforehand. However, the general secretary\u2019s report to the party congress often sets the tone of what China\u2019s leadership will prioritise in the coming years.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/span><\/p>\n

Over the weekend, President Xi Jinping delivered a speech to the congress. In over 104 minutes, Xisummarised the \u201cgreat achievements\u201d of his first decade as China\u2019s top leader and coined the phrase \u201cChinese-style modernisation\u201d. He laid out his vision for China for the next five years and beyond, signalling how the country will engage with the world.<\/span><\/p>\n

Continuity is key<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Five years ago, Xi\u2019s report to the previous party congress indicated China would become a more assertive shaper of international orders.<\/span><\/p>\n

Many foreign policy narratives in this year\u2019s report are similar or identical to those in his 2017 report. This includes key phrases such as \u201cupholding world peace\u201d, \u201cpromoting common development\u201d, and \u201cworking to build a community with a shared future for humankind\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n

The continuity in Xi\u2019s narratives indicates China is unlikely to embrace rapid foreign policy changes in the foreseeable future. Keeping the existing foreign policy narratives may also be a deliberate choice. After all, Xi is widely expected to secure a historic third term as China\u2019s top leader, so his policies will likely stay.<\/span><\/p>\n

According to Xi, China will \u201cremain firm in pursuing an independent foreign policy of peace\u201d. Xi also pledges \u201cChina will never seek hegemony or engage in expansion\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, Xi stresses that China won\u2019t compromise on issues over Taiwan. Following the established party line on Taiwan, Xi reiterated in his report that \u201cresolving the Taiwan issue is the Chinese people\u2019s own business, and it up to the Chinese people to decide\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n

Xi voiced the support for \u201ca peaceful reunification\u201d with \u201cthe greatest sincerity and utmost effort\u201d. But he also said China will \u201cnever promise to renounce use of force\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n

It would be naive to assume the lack of new keywords in Xi\u2019s foreign policy narratives means China will return to being a \u201cquiet achiever\u201d in the international arena. On the contrary, given China\u2019s mighty economic, military, and technological capacities, the country has already become an essential shaper of international orders, whether its diplomats act as \u201cwolf warriors\u201d or keep a low profile.<\/span><\/p>\n

Though not directly confrontational, Xi\u2019s report signals China does not adhere to the \u201crules-based international order\u201d advocated by the United States and its Western allies. Instead, according to Xi, China will \u201cpromote the democratisation of international relations\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n

Ambiguity<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

One of the few noticeable new foreign policy phrases in Xi\u2019s report is that China will \u201cdecide its position and policy on issues based on their own merits\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n

China\u2019s foreign minister and ministry spokespersons have frequently used this phrase to justify the country\u2019s position of refraining from condemning Russia for its invasion of Ukraine.<\/span><\/p>\n

Including this phrase in Xi\u2019s report indicates China is likely to keep its ambiguous position on the war in Ukraine. It won\u2019t follow the West in cutting ties with Russia, nor will it explicitly support Russia\u2019s military operations.<\/span><\/p>\n

Introducing this new phrase also gives China\u2019s foreign policymakers more space to manoeuvre in complicated issues in the future.<\/span><\/p>\n

National security an essential focus<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

According to a Reuters count based on the not-yet-published full written report, which is much longer than Xi\u2019s speech, the terms \u201csecurity\u201d and \u201csafety\u201d appear 89 times.<\/span><\/p>\n

Compared with Xi\u2019s report five years ago, the frequency of these two words increased by over 60%.<\/span><\/p>\n

A whole chapter of Xi\u2019s report is devoted to national security. The report calls for \u201ca holistic approach to national security\u201d, which involves coordinating China\u2019s \u201cexternal and internal security\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n

His report also indicates China will not only look after its own security, but also work on \u201ccommon security\u201d, primarily through the \u201cGlobal Security Initiative\u201d raised by Xi in April 2022. This initiative, though still lacking in details, stresses that any state shouldn\u2019t pursue its own security in the expanse of other states\u2019 security.<\/span><\/p>\n

It will likely become China\u2019s new foreign policy framework to take on the US\u2019s Indo-Pacific Strategy, which China believes \u201caims to contain China and attempts to make Asia-Pacific countries \u2018pawns\u2019 of US hegemony\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n

Xi\u2019s report also explicitly states China will protect the \u201clegitimate rights and interests\u201d of its \u201coverseas citizens and legal persons\u201d. Linking this with the report\u2019s emphasis on securing China\u2019s industrial chains and supply chains, it\u2019s expected China will make more efforts to extend its protection over state-owned and private entities beyond its physical borders.<\/span><\/p>\n

Engaging via \u2018development\u2019<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

As the country was hit hard by Covidin mid-2020, many observers speculated China would gradually cut its economic ties with the external market and seek to be economically self-reliant.<\/span><\/p>\n

Xi\u2019s report, however, reiterates that China will keep its door open. Echoing Xi\u2019s report, Zhao Chenxin, deputy director of China\u2019s macroeconomic management agency the National Development and Reform Commission, clarified that China isn\u2019t seeking to become a self-sufficient economy.<\/span><\/p>\n

According to Xi\u2019s report, China also intends to \u201ccreate new opportunities for the world with its own development\u201d. As China\u2019s development-driven international engagement continues, the Belt-and-Road Initiative is likely to remain a significant policy platform for China\u2019s foreign relations.<\/span><\/p>\n

Yu Tao<\/span>
\n<\/strong><\/span>Senior Lecturer in Chinese Studies,
\nThe University of Western Australia<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

Mauritius Times ePaper Friday 21 October 2022<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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