{"id":33982,"date":"2022-02-25T09:53:09","date_gmt":"2022-02-25T05:53:09","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.mauritiustimes.com\/mt\/?p=33982"},"modified":"2022-02-25T09:53:09","modified_gmt":"2022-02-25T05:53:09","slug":"eight-changes-the-world-needs-to-make-to-live-with-covid","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.mauritiustimes.com\/mt\/eight-changes-the-world-needs-to-make-to-live-with-covid\/","title":{"rendered":"Eight changes the world needs to make to live with Covid"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/em><\/span><\/h4>\n

<\/h4>\n

There is no going back to a pre-pandemic normal \u2013 only forward to a new one<\/em><\/span><\/h4>\n

\"\"Andy Rain\/EPA-EFE<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

More and more people have been asking for\u00a0a return to normal, and with omicron waning, governments are starting to act. The UK, for example,\u00a0is removing\u00a0its remaining public health measures, including mandatory self-isolation of Covid cases and free testing. However, the inescapable truth is that \u2013 unless the virus mutates to a milder form \u2013 the \u201cnormal\u201d life we are returning to will be shorter and sicker on average than before.<\/span><\/p>\n

We\u2019ve added a new significant disease to our population. Covid is often compared to flu, as if adding a burden equivalent to flu to a population were fine (it isn\u2019t). In fact, Covid has been and\u00a0remains worse. Covid\u2019s infection fatality rate \u2013 the proportion of people who die once they\u2019ve caught it \u2013 was initially about ten times higher than for flu. Treatments, vaccines and prior infections have since brought the fatality rate down, but it\u2019s still\u00a0almost twice as high\u00a0as for flu \u2013 and yes, this still holds for omicron.<\/span><\/p>\n

The impact is then worsened because Covid is so much more transmissible. It also has a similar or worse longer-term impact on the\u00a0heart,\u00a0lungs\u00a0and\u00a0mental health\u00a0than other respiratory diseases, and a higher rate of\u00a0long-term symptoms. Vaccines have been incredibly effective at reducing severe illness and death, but they\u2019re not perfect. New variants have tested vaccine defences, and protection against infection \u2013 and to a lesser extent severe illness \u2013\u00a0wanes after\u00a0a few months.<\/span><\/p>\n

While we\u2019re unlikely to lose all protection against severe illness and death, the sort of return to normal being attempted in countries such as the UK, Denmark and Norway will result in many people facing repeated Covid infections over the coming years. The large majority will cope, but some will die, and more will be left with lasting ill health. Many with mild illness will still need time off work or education, and as we have seen with omicron, the aggregate effects can be\u00a0hugely disruptive.<\/span><\/p>\n

In short, the world pre-2020 no longer exists \u2013 we may want it to, but it just doesn\u2019t.<\/span><\/p>\n

How to live post-Covid<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

The last 150 years have seen vast improvements in public health, with dramatic reductions in deaths from malnutrition, infectious diseases, environmental diseases, smoking and road traffic accidents to name a few.<\/span><\/p>\n

For communal problems we have developed communal solutions, from vaccines to controls on pollution, passive smoking, unsafe driving and other ills. There\u2019s nothing normal about upending decades of progress by simply accepting a serious new disease like Covidwithout actively attempting to mitigate it.<\/span><\/p>\n

The good news is that we can mitigate it. We can accept that the world has changed and make adaptations based on what we have learned from the last two years. Here are eight key changes that can reduce the future impact of Covid:<\/span><\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Outdoors is pretty safe\u00a0\u2013 so let\u2019s make indoor air as much like the outdoors as possible. This will involve large investment\u00a0in infrastructure\u00a0to improve ventilation and to filter and clean the air. This isn\u2019t simple, but neither was bringing clean water and electricity to every home. We know how to do it and it will be effective against any future variant and any airborne disease.<\/span><\/li>\n
  2. Vaccines remain crucial. We need to\u00a0vaccinate the world\u00a0as soon as possible to save lives and slow down the emergence of new variants. We also need to keep working\u00a0towards vaccines\u00a0that are longer lasting and more variant proof.<\/span><\/li>\n
  3. We\u2019ve learned that acting sooner rather than later is crucial to containing outbreaks and preventing spread to other countries. So we need to invest in\u00a0global surveillance\u00a0of new Covid variants and other new infectious diseases.<\/span><\/li>\n
  4. Most countries already have routine surveillance for serious infectious diseases (such as\u00a0flu\u00a0and\u00a0measles) and plans in place to mitigate their impact. Countries need to add permanent surveillance of Covid infection rates to existing programmes, to keep track of how much Covid is circulating, where and in which communities.<\/span><\/li>\n
  5. We still know too little about the long-term impacts of Covid, though we do know it can cause\u00a0long-lasting organ damage\u00a0and result in long Covid. We need to invest in understanding, preventing and treating these impacts.<\/span><\/li>\n
  6. Many health systems were\u00a0already struggling\u00a0before Covid hit, and have since had their\u00a0resilience further depleted\u00a0by the pandemic. Investment in health systems is urgently needed, particularly in winter seasons where the additional burden of Covid will be most acutely felt.<\/span><\/li>\n
  7. Covid has hit the most disadvantaged\u00a0the hardest. Those least able to afford to self-isolate are also more likely to\u00a0work outside the home, use public transport\u00a0and live in\u00a0overcrowded housing\u00a0\u2013 all risk factors for catching the virus. Increased exposure is coupled with lower vaccination rates and poorer health among disadvantaged groups, leading to\u00a0worse outcomes\u00a0if infected. Countries need to invest more in reducing inequalities: in health, housing, workplaces, sick pay and education. This will make all of us more resilient to future outbreaks and reduce ill health and death \u2013 not just from Covid but everything else too.<\/span><\/li>\n
  8. Finally, there will still be\u00a0future waves\u00a0of Covid\u2013 the above will simply reduce their frequency and scale. We need to have a plan to deal with these. Excellent national surveillance systems will help rapidly identify an outbreak and understand how much ill health is being caused and immunity evaded \u2013 all of which will help tailor an appropriate temporary response. A response might, for instance, include escalating testing, reintroducing masks and working from home where possible.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    Such plans should enable us to avoid long widespread lockdowns. Refusing to learn to live with Covid by pretending the old normal exists is in fact the biggest risk for future lockdowns.<\/span><\/p>\n

    We need to move on from the denial and anger stages of grief and on to accepting that the world is different now. Then, we can take control and build a way of living that is designed to contain the virus while allowing all of us \u2013 including the clinically vulnerable \u2013 to lead freer and more healthy lives.<\/span><\/p>\n

    Christina Pagel<\/strong><\/span>
    \nProfessor of Operational Research, <\/span>
    \nDirector of the UCL Clinical Operational Research Unit, UCL<\/span><\/p>\n

    \n

    * Published in print edition on 25 February 2022<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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