{"id":33783,"date":"2022-01-21T14:28:12","date_gmt":"2022-01-21T10:28:12","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.mauritiustimes.com\/mt\/?p=33783"},"modified":"2022-01-21T14:28:12","modified_gmt":"2022-01-21T10:28:12","slug":"boris-johnson-polling-is-now-so-bad-that-it-makes-sense-for-conservative-mps-to-get-rid-of-him","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.mauritiustimes.com\/mt\/boris-johnson-polling-is-now-so-bad-that-it-makes-sense-for-conservative-mps-to-get-rid-of-him\/","title":{"rendered":"Boris Johnson polling is now so bad that it makes sense for Conservative MPs to get rid of him"},"content":{"rendered":"

Polling trends suggest more letters could make their way to the 1922 Committee<\/em><\/span><\/h4>\n

<\/p>\n

\"\"EPA\/UK Parliament\/Jessica Taylor<\/span><\/p>\n

Things just keep getting worse for Boris Johnson. On the same day that one of his MPs\u00a0defected to\u00a0the Labour party, former Brexit minister\u00a0David Davis\u00a0stood up in parliament to call for Johnson\u2019s resignation.<\/p>\n

The voices calling for the prime minister\u2019s departure are mounting. If 54 letters of no-confidence in him are sent to the backbench\u00a01922 Committee, a leadership contest will be triggered. Many members of Johnson\u2019s party will therefore be calculating whether such a move against him is the right course of action. Central to this thinking will be whether continuing with Johnson as leader would cost them their seat in the next election.<\/p>\n

Support for the Conservatives has been nosediving in the polls following the scandal over gatherings held in Downing Street during pandemic lockdowns. We can learn something about how concerned Conservative MPs should be by looking at polling over the last ten years or so \u2013 specifically the voting intentions for Labour and the Conservatives since the general election of 2010.<\/p>\n

Not surprisingly general elections have a big impact on support for the two major parties. The Conservatives were boosted by Labour\u2019s defeat in 2010, although they did not get an overall majority in that election.<\/p>\n

Again in 2015, support for the party increased during the run-up to the election, but on this occasion, David Cameron did win an overall majority \u2013 largely by decimating the voter base of the Conservatives\u2019 coalition partner, the Liberal Democrats. Boris Johnson did very much better than his predecessors when he faced his own election in December 2019. He moved well ahead of Labour in the polls to win an 80-seat majority in the House of Commons.<\/p>\n

However, the more striking feature in the chart is the effect of the\u00a0European parliamentary elections\u00a0of May 2019, near the end of Theresa May\u2019s premiership. It produced a massive loss of support for both of the two main parties. Their popularity ratings fell dramatically from the start of that year and the outcome was grim for both.<\/p>\n

Labour came third and lost ten seats and the Conservatives came fifth and lost 15 seats. Of course, the last European parliamentary elections were not as important as general elections and the turnout was low. That said, support for the two major parties collapsed on that occasion.<\/p>\n

The outcome of the European elections was a direct product of the turmoil and polarisation caused by Brexit, both in parliament and in the country. This crisis was triggered in turn by the loss of the Conservative majority in the 2017 general election. That election was the clear exception to the pattern of Conservative leaders improving their performance in relation to seats won in the House of Commons since 2010. The conclusion from the 2019 European election results is that major political crises have large effects on polling support and voting.<\/p>\n

This is relevant to the present situation since the plunging support for the Conservatives in recent polls is comparable to that which occurred in the European parliamentary elections. In June 2019, the month after those elections, voting intentions for Theresa May\u2019s party hit 22%. In the most recent YouGov poll completed on January 13 2022, the Conservatives received 29%. Since the turn of the year the party\u2019s support has fallen\u00a0like a stone.<\/p>\n

However, there is an important difference between support for the two major parties in the run-up to the European parliamentary elections and at the present time. In 2019 Labour\u2019s voting intentions fell as sharply as the Conservatives, whereas now it is rising rather rapidly. The recent YouGov poll put the party on 40% in vote intentions.<\/p>\n

The government may have made \u201cpartygate\u201d even worse in its attempts at damage limitation. Downing Street has embarked on what has been referred to as the \u201cred meat\u201d strategy.<\/p>\n

This involves announcing right-wing populist policies such as\u00a0attacks on the BBC, restrictions on the right to protest and hints that the\u00a0Royal Navy\u00a0will be used to deal with illegal immigration across the channel. In each case, the aim is to appease angry backbench MPs and distract the voting public. The calculation is that this may be enough to keep Johnson in Downing Street until the media frenzy moves on.<\/p>\n

The problem with this strategy is that it is trashing the Tory brand among the large numbers of voters who are not attracted by right-wing populism. This is likely to reinforce the view among this group that Johnson is not fit to govern. They will be very difficult to woo back into supporting the party if he stays in after the media storm has subsided. A sharp move to the right, possibly followed by an equally sharp move to the centre (where most voters are located) once the storm subsides is likely to weaken the government\u2019s credibility even more.<\/p>\n

If Johnson is not replaced by a new leader, backbench Conservative MPs would be well advised to start brushing up their CVs in preparation for life after Westminster.<\/p>\n

Paul Whiteley<\/strong><\/span>
\n<\/em><\/strong>Professor, Department of Government, <\/span>
\nUniversity of Essex<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

* Published in print edition on 21 January 2022<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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