{"id":33020,"date":"2021-10-22T07:59:35","date_gmt":"2021-10-22T03:59:35","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.mauritiustimes.com\/mt\/?p=33020"},"modified":"2021-10-22T07:59:35","modified_gmt":"2021-10-22T03:59:35","slug":"what-happens-if-cop26-doesnt-meet-its-goals","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.mauritiustimes.com\/mt\/what-happens-if-cop26-doesnt-meet-its-goals\/","title":{"rendered":"What happens if COP26 doesn\u2019t meet its goals?"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/em><\/h4>\n

<\/h4>\n

What is COP26? Here\u2019s how global climate negotiations work and what\u2019s expected from the Glasgow summit<\/span> <\/em><\/h4>\n

\"\"U.N. climate summits bring together representatives of almost every country.\u00a0UNFCCC<\/a><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Over two weeks in November, world leaders and national negotiators will meet in Scotland to discuss what to do about climate change. It\u2019s a complex process that can be hard to make sense of from the outside, but it\u2019s how international law and institutions help solve problems that no single country can fix on its own.<\/span><\/p>\n

I worked for the United Nations for several years as a law and policy adviser and have been involved in international negotiations. Here\u2019s what\u2019s happening behind closed doors and why people are concerned that COP26 might not meet its goals.<\/span><\/p>\n

What is COP26?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

In 1992, countries agreed to an international treaty called\u00a0the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change\u00a0(UNFCCC), which set ground rules and expectations for global cooperation on combating climate change. It was the first time the majority of nations formally recognized the\u00a0need to control greenhouse gas emissions, which cause global warming that drives climate change.<\/span><\/p>\n

That treaty has since been updated, including in 2015 when nations signed the\u00a0Paris climate agreement. That agreement set the goal of limiting global warming to \u201cwell below\u201d 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 F), and preferably to 1.5 C (2.7 F),\u00a0to avoid catastrophic climate change.<\/span><\/p>\n

COP26 stands for the 26th Conference of Parties to the UNFCCC. The \u201cparties\u201d are the 196 countries that ratified the treaty plus the European Union.\u00a0The United Kingdom, partnering with Italy,\u00a0is hosting COP26 in Glasgow, Scotland, from Oct. 31 through Nov. 12, 2021, after a one-year postponement due to the COVID-19 pandemic.<\/span><\/p>\n

Why are world leaders so focused on climate change?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

The U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change\u2019s latest report, released in August 2021, warns in its strongest terms yet that\u00a0human activities have unequivocally\u00a0warmed the planet, and that climate change is now widespread, rapid and intensifying.<\/span><\/p>\n

The IPCC\u2019s scientists explain how\u00a0climate change has been fueling\u00a0extreme\u00a0weather events and flooding, severe\u00a0heat waves and droughts, loss and\u00a0extinction of species, and the\u00a0melting of ice sheets and rising of sea levels. U.N. Secretary-General Ant\u00f3nio Guterres called the report a\u00a0\u201ccode red for humanity.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Enough greenhouse gas emissions are already in the atmosphere, and they stay there long enough, that\u00a0even under the most ambitious scenario\u00a0of countries quickly reducing their emissions, the world will experience rising temperatures through at least mid-century.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, there remains a narrow window of opportunity. If countries can cut global emissions to \u201cnet zero\u201d by 2050, that could bring warming back to under 1.5 C in the second half of the 21st century. How to get closer to that course is what leaders and negotiators are discussing.<\/span><\/p>\n

What happens at COP26?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

During the first days of the conference, around 120 heads of state, like U.S. President Joe Biden, and their representatives will gather to demonstrate their political commitment to slowing climate change.<\/span><\/p>\n

Once the heads of state depart, country delegations, often led by ministers of environment, engage in days of negotiations, events and exchanges\u00a0to adopt their positions, make new pledges and join new initiatives. These interactions are based on months of prior discussions, policy papers and proposals prepared by groups of states, U.N. staff and other experts.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nongovernmental organizations and business leaders also attend the conference, and\u00a0COP26 has a public side\u00a0with sessions focused on topics such as the impact of climate change on small island states, forests or agriculture, as well as exhibitions and other events.<\/span><\/p>\n

The meeting ends with an outcome text that all countries agree to. Guterres\u00a0publicly expressed disappointment\u00a0with the COP25 outcome, and there are\u00a0signs of trouble\u00a0heading into COP26.<\/span><\/p>\n

What is COP26 expected to accomplish?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Countries are required under the Paris Agreement to update their national climate action plans every five years, including at COP26. This year, they\u2019re expected to have ambitious targets through 2030. These are known as\u00a0nationally determined contributions, or NDCs.<\/span><\/p>\n

The Paris Agreement requires countries to report their NDCs, but it allows them leeway in determining how they reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. The initial\u00a0set of emission reduction targets in 2015 was far too weak to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.<\/span><\/p>\n

One key goal of COP26 is to ratchet up these targets to reach\u00a0net zero carbon emissions\u00a0by the middle of the century.<\/span><\/p>\n

Another aim of COP26 is\u00a0to increase climate finance\u00a0to help poorer countries transition to clean energy and adapt to climate change. This is an important issue of justice for many developing countries\u00a0whose people bear the largest burden\u00a0from climate change but have contributed least to it. Wealthy countries promised in 2009 to contribute\u00a0$100 billion a year\u00a0by 2020 to help developing nations,\u00a0a goal that has not been reached. The\u00a0U.S., U.K. and\u00a0EU, among the largest historic greenhouse emitters, are increasing their financial commitments, and banks, businesses, insurers and private investors are being asked to do more.<\/span><\/p>\n

Other objectives\u00a0include phasing out coal use and generating solutions that preserve, restore or regenerate natural carbon sinks, such as forests.<\/span><\/p>\n

Another challenge that has derailed past COPs is agreeing on\u00a0implementing a carbon trading system\u00a0outlined in the Paris Agreement.<\/span><\/p>\n

Are countries on track to meet the international climate goals?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

The U.N. warned\u00a0in September 2021 that countries\u2019 revised targets were too weak and would leave the world on pace to\u00a0warm 2.7 C\u00a0(4.9 F) by the end of the century. However, governments are also facing another challenge this fall that could affect how they respond:\u00a0Energy supply shortages\u00a0have left Europe and China with price spikes for natural gas, coal and oil.<\/span><\/p>\n

China\u00a0\u2013 the world\u2019s largest emitter \u2013 has\u00a0not yet submitted its NDC. Major fossil fuel producers such as\u00a0Saudi Arabia,\u00a0Russia\u00a0and\u00a0Australia\u00a0seem unwilling to strengthen their commitments.\u00a0India\u00a0\u2013 a critical player as the second-largest consumer, producer and importer of coal globally \u2013 has also not yet committed.<\/span><\/p>\n

Other developing nations such as Indonesia, Malaysia, South Africa and Mexico are important. So is\u00a0Brazil, which, under Javier Bolsonaro\u2019s\u00a0watch, has increased deforestation of the Amazon \u2013 the world\u2019s largest rainforest and crucial for biodiversity and removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.<\/span><\/p>\n

What happens if COP26 doesn\u2019t meet its goals?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Many insiders believe that\u00a0COP26 won\u2019t reach its goal\u00a0of having strong enough commitments from countries to cut global greenhouse gas emissions 45% by 2030. That means the world won\u2019t be on a smooth course for reaching net-zero emissions by 2050 and the goal of keeping warming under 1.5 C.<\/span><\/p>\n

But organizers maintain that keeping warming under 1.5 C is still possible. Former Secretary of State\u00a0John Kerry, who has been leading\u00a0the U.S. negotiations,\u00a0remains hopeful\u00a0that enough countries will create momentum for others to strengthen their reduction targets by 2025.<\/span><\/p>\n

The cost of failure is astronomical. Studies have shown that\u00a0the difference between 1.5 and 2 degrees Celsius\u00a0can mean the submersion of small island states, the\u00a0death of coral reefs, extreme heat waves, flooding and wildfires, and pervasive crop failure.<\/span><\/p>\n

That translates into many premature deaths, more mass migration, major economic losses, large swaths of unlivable land and violent conflict over resources and food \u2013 what the U.N. secretary-general has called\u00a0\u201ca hellish future.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Shelley Inglis<\/strong><\/span>
\nExecutive Director, <\/span>
\nUniversity of Dayton Human Rights Center, <\/span>
\nUniversity of Dayton<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

* Published in print edition on 22 October 2021<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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