Kamala Harris for President
|Are we witnessing a Kamala Harris phenomenon? Is this a new movement that will last and gain traction?
By Anil Madan
Kamala Harris will not be the first person of partly African ancestry to become the President of the United States. That was Obama’s breakthrough. Harris is not the first woman to be a major party’s presidential nominee. Hillary Clinton holds that distinction. Obama won, Hillary Clinton lost. Harris is the first person of partly Indian origin to be a major party’s nominee.
There have been two women vice presidential nominees, Geraldine Ferraro and Sarah Palin. Neither was elected. There have been two Catholic nominees, John F. Kennedy and Joseph R. Biden. Both were elected. Mike Pence, a Catholic was elected Vice President.
There is a tendency for those euphoric about such achievements by nominees to project victory. Often that is more hope than reality. In the 2024 election for President, the race is so close that it is difficult to say which side, Trump’s or Harris’s, is more about hope than reality.
What is significant is that Kamala Harris’s campaign has become a movement and that since President Biden withdrew and endorsed her as presumptive heir, she has soared in the polls, caught Donald Trump, surpassed his numbers and then, … well, we don’t know quite what.
National polls in the US show that Harris is ahead by as much as 4 or 5 points. National polls also show that Trump is ahead by a few points. Which poll(s) should we believe? Well, that’s hard to say for four reasons:
- We don’t know how the polls were conducted, i.e., what is the demographic that makes up those surveyed? It is easy to get skewed results if one selects a cohort of voters who are in groups tending to favour one candidate or the other. Many pollsters are for hire, so caution is the watchword.
- How does one accurately find a “likely” voter at this stage of the campaign? Most people when asked, will say they intend to vote. But reality is another thing. Voter turnout in US presidential elections is notoriously low. In presidential election years, the turnout is in the low 60 percents, with 2020 hitting 66% of registered voters. If those who profess to be likely voters are no more likely to vote than the historic voter turnout shows, the margin of error of the polls is probably as high as 40% and not the 3-5% that we often are told it is.
- What are the specific questions asked? It is well known that polls results can be skewed by how questions are phrased.
- National polls don’t really mean anything because ultimately, the presidential race is decided by the electoral college. It is well known that there are many states that are solidly leaning Blue or in favour of the Democratic nominee, and many that are solidly leaning Red or in favour of the Republican nominee. This leads to the oft-repeated caveat that the presidential race will be decided by the so-called swing states or “purple” states. Here “purple” conveys the notion that the state is neither solidly Red (Republican) nor solidly Blue (Democrat), but a mixture and hence, purple.
The result in these swing states often depends on voter turnout, or, in other words, how many of the “likely” voters turn out to be “actual” voters. A few thousand votes in Georgia, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, and Arizona, could make the difference. And this is true regardless of how the vote goes in New York, Massachusetts, Illinois, California, Oregon, Washington, Texas, Alabama, Florida, Arkansas, Oklahoma … well, you get the idea.
A woman of colour
Kamala Harris’s candidacy is notable because she is a woman of colour running for the highest office. She has both an African American and an Asian background. She has experience as a prosecutor in California, as Attorney General of California, as a United States Senator, and as Vice President.
But she must also contend with those who claim that these accomplishments are not adequate preparation for being President, as well as with those who diminish her achievements by suggesting she obtained them through favoritism or chicanery.Read More… Become a Subscriber
Mauritius Times ePaper Friday 27 September 2024
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