Attack and Risk: Israel’s Dilemma

Can Israel respond forcefully to Iran’s attack and not lose the support of its allies?

By Anil Madan

Iran’s second direct attack on Israel unleashed about 180 ballistic missiles. Most missed. Or were intercepted. An Israeli air base was damaged and in tragic irony, the lone person Iran killed was a Palestinian.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard justified the attack not only as retaliation of the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iran last July, but curiously also as a response to the killing of Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah, not on Iranian soil, but in Beirut last week. Major General Patrick Ryder, speaking for the Pentagon said that the US had assisted Israel in knocking out missiles fired into Israel, and that the number of ballistic missiles fired by Iran was twice that of Iran’s April attack.

Some 100 homes in city of Hod Hasharon, northern Israel, damaged by Iranian missile attack

The U.S. Response and President Biden’s Dilemma

President Biden is caught between recognizing Israel’s right to respond and trying to avoid an all-out regional war. He has consulted with G7 member countries in an apparent effort to impose additional sanctions on Iran. He said: “We’ll be discussing with the Israelis what they’re going to do, but all seven of us (G7 countries) agree that they have a right to respond but they should respond proportionally.”

It is not clear what Biden, his administration, or the G7 countries consider an acceptable “proportional” response under the circumstances. Israel has long threatened to strike Iran’s nuclear sites. But when asked if he would back such a strike now, Biden said emphatically: “The answer is no.” However, he did promise that more sanctions would be imposed on Iran. Adding that he would speak soon with Netanyahu, Biden said: “Obviously, Iran is way off course.”

Press reports abound that the US has cautioned Israel against targeting Tehran’s nuclear facilities, warning that such actions could escalate regional instability. Secretary of State Blinken has expressed concern about the potential for further escalation in the Middle East with his European counterparts. Naftali Bennett, a former Israeli Prime Minister, called for a decisive strike on Iran’s nuclear sites to “fatally cripple this terrorist regime.” Matthew Miller, a State Department spokesman said: “Israel has a right to respond… but we don’t want to see any action that would lead to a full-blown regional war.”

It is not clear why the US fears a regional war. Iran and its two major proxies, Hamas and Hezbollah are already at war with Israel, and a somewhat marginal proxy, the Houthis are also involved. Iran has no other allies in the Middle East that it can entice into a war with Israel. Of course, there are lingering concerns about what Russia and China might do in supporting Iran.

The US has sent mixed messages in this regard. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan promised “severe consequences” for Iran and stated in a briefing that the US would “work with Israel to make that the case.” However, Sullivan did not specify what those consequences might be, and he did not urge Israel to exercise restraint as President Biden did after Iran’s drone and missile attack last April.

While members of the Israeli government and its spokespersons have promised that retaliation is in the offing, Prime Minister Netanyahu approach included both a promise of severe consequences, and a striking appeal to the Iranian people.

Netanyahu promised that Iran would pay for its missile attack against Israel. He said: “Iran made a big mistake tonight – and it will pay for it,” and he warned: “Whoever attacks us, we attack them.” Israeli Defense Minister Gallant echoed his Prime Minister’s promise: “Iran has not learned a simple lesson – those who attack the state of Israel, pay a heavy price.” Israel’s Ambassador to the United Nations, Danny Danon, added: “We will act. Iran will soon feel the consequences of their actions. The response will be painful.”

Netanyahu’s Message to Iran

Netanyahu also took the unusual step of recording a video message to the Iranian people. It was a speech that a politician running for office might make. Of course, we cannot know how many Iranians will have access to Netanyahu’s speech. Or indeed, whether it is likely to resonate with the disaffected average Iranian.

Netanyahu’s message was that the oppressive theocratic regime is plunging the Middle East deeper into darkness and deeper into war, bringing the “noble Persian people” closer to the abyss. He accused the regime of wasting billions of dollars on futile wars across the Middle East instead of improving their lives. He castigated the regime for wasting vast sums of money on nuclear weapons and foreign wars instead of having invested it in education, improving your health care, building Iran’s infrastructure, water, and sewage facilities.

“When Iran is finally free — and that moment will come a lot sooner than people think – everything will be different,” Netanyahu promised, thus hinting that Israel might bring about regime change. Offering a vision of hope, he said: “Our two ancient peoples, the Jewish people and the Persian people, will finally be at peace. Our two countries, Israel and Iran, will be at peace. When that day comes, the terror network that the regime built in five continents will be bankrupt, dismantled. Iran will thrive as never before. Global investment. Massive tourism. Brilliant technological innovation based on the tremendous talents that exists inside Iran. Doesn’t that sound better than endless poverty, repression and war?”Read More… Become a Subscriber


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