ONLINE ISSUE No: 317

Friday 16 May 2008

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*Founded in 1954 by Beekrumsingh Ramlallah

QUOTE OF THE WEEK
"I don't believe in predestined fate. The future is what we choose to create."
-- Jim Davidson

 

 

Interview: Anil Gujadhur   

“If we make the wrong policy choices, we may with some chance be in the future what Haiti is like today” 

* “Govt can always repair economic decisions so long it doesn’t sap public confidence” 

* “Reform can be re-orientated, recalling that the economic agenda comes to an end where the social agenda is not a well thought-out part of it”   


Anil Gujadhur, former Deputy Governor of the Bank of Mauritius and Chairman of the Financial Services Commission, was invited to give his views to MT on a wide spectrum of live economic issues this week. With his deep experience of the financial sector and his refreshing out-spokenness, he states that Mauritius can progress much more if it manages to break from insularity, including in its mode of thinking. He throws valuable insights on what the next steps could be to extricate ourselves from a potentially difficult forward economic adventure…   


Mauritius Times: What if you were to be told that the forthcoming Budget of Minister Sithanen could be the last of the present government’s mandate? Sounds far-fetched from the political angle, but how would you react from an economist’s perspective? 

Anil Gujadhur: I don’t know who has made this prediction and under which assumptions. In plain language, this view assumes that the harm done by the previous budget(s) is so much beyond repair that no matter what the new proposals are going to be (and we don’t know what they are going to be!), they would be of no avail to set matters right.

I doubt that the Minister would have come to such a pass or that the Minister has come to such a point of no return that he cannot now get his act right. A re-balancing is always possible in economic matters. Even at the far end of his mandate, President Bush is still trying all he can to whip up consumer demand to mitigate the effects of recession in the US and it is widely acknowledged that the biggest failure of the Bush administration has been on the economic chapter. Chancellor Darling of the UK has been busying himself lately, reversing certain recent tax proposals that have had the effect of taking the shine away from Gordon Brown. Yet the latter was till lately being credited with a stellar performance as Britain’s chancellor for over a decade. He is now in free fall. You can always repair economic decisions so long you don’t sap public confidence in you.

A budget can be an instrument for achieving two objectives at least: bringing about a redistribution by way of taxes and expenditures so as to obtain a reasonable social balance between those who are well-off and the less well-off, and, secondly, setting down an inclusive and solid platform for sustainable future growth. Its path can be wayward enough from one budget to the other so that you can right the things that you did not do so well before, learning from experience. The main shortcoming of local budget policies so far relates to insufficient focus on the micro-management of its effects. Many people feel let down by a continuous loss of purchasing power due to rising prices which, you will recall, before the recent rise in prices of essential goods at the global level, were being fuelled by the rupee’s pronounced depreciation in 2006. The budget has to ensure that this process does not continue to sap the morale of the population. Is this an impossible task? If yes, the assumption behind the prediction is right. If not, the situation may be turned around.

Having said this, unless we know what exactly is in store with the next budget, we cannot in advance call it a lame duck and write it off. I prefer to reserve my judgment.

Looking at the prediction you mention from another angle, it begs another question: assume that the prediction made was correct, who then will present the budget just after? Is there an alternative credible coalition of views strong enough on what the future budget should be heading for, other than cashing on the current failings, which spells out the difference those views will make compared to the present state of affairs? I don’t recall something to this effect. A vacuum will not help.  

* Economic reforms do not always make a government popular, and Minister Sithanen could well have said to his colleagues that his “budgetary proposals over the last two years make lousy politics, but they make good economic sense,” given that there were no alternatives. Do you agree?  

-- Are you referring to the decisions taken to streamline procedures, straighten rules for collecting taxes, duties, fees, etc., open up the skies, centralise decision-making? All of this makes excellent economic and, I guess, political sense. Efficient governments of any hue will love to bring in those reforms because they represent eliminating unnecessary costs. Not taking those decisions retards progress: look at India. Despite clearing up so much of the bureaucracy by the present government, a hard core persists and the government has to find by-ways and alleys to get to its social targeting, without the support of the bureaucracy if possible. In the present world of high international competition, a seamless operating platform is a plus in favour of a country.

Just imagine what it would look like if highly regarded places like Singapore were improving on their already excellent business climate while we were not even removing so many inefficiencies that usually breed corruption. Reforms of this sort raise the country’s international standing and they bring us FDI and open up new markets. As far as I am aware, no politician would throw that away. And the public would not be unhappy, either. 

* But what about the new taxes introduced, overhaul of existing taxes, etc, as part of the reform package?

-- OK, if you are speaking about some of the taxes that were brought in, there is a point. This has to be seen in context. People had built up huge positive expectations after the last elections. Certain taxes like the National Residential Property Tax and the fact that the budget withdrew even the tax exemption threshold on interest earned from bank savings, proved to be a great disillusionment against those expectations. The all-inclusive higher exempt income tax threshold was no remedy or trade-off against the mis-perception the taxes created.The extensive leveraging that was done, before the presentation of the first budget, about a potential increase in the Value Added Tax (actually there was none) also tensed up feelings. No amount of explaining the economic choices available or statistics on the numbers that would actually be impacted by tax, could overcome the deception that people felt on those “reforms”. I suppose this made it extremely difficult for deputies to face the voters.

It was clear that voters had other more optimistic considerations in mind before those taxes were introduced. In the second budget, when the corporate tax rate came thumping down, it was officially intended perhaps as a positive signal to business about a light tax regime in Mauritius. But with the public, it was seen as an unnecessary handout. Because the axe was falling squarely on them! I believe this feeling persists among the population and the high rate of inflation (for whatever reasons) is not helping. It has something to do with perception of the fairness of the tax system.

The question is whether, as in the past elections, business can use its handouts to political parties to win its bet once again over prevailing negative popular sentiment. If so, the tax reforms will be well entrenched and the public reconciled to how worse could their lot have been had some “others” secured political power. This is how other initially unpopular taxes have been introduced in the past and been finally endorsed. In the UK, we see, however, that the public is in an altogether different mood chastising the Labour government on its current weak stewardship of the economy. It seems the credit they had been giving Mr Brown for presiding over so many long years of economic stability and growth has rubbed off easily as soon as his government embarked on introducing some oppressive measures.

It is good to try to understand the context in which the unpopular tax decisions could have been taken. Perhaps, there was equal apprehension on the side of policy makers that unless all potential sources of revenue are tapped, it would be back to square one as regards budget performance. The budget out-turn actually shows that there was an under-estimation of budget revenue collections without introducing those drastic tax changes. VAT has proved to be a real cash cow, adding significantly to revenues even remaining at the level at which it was, 15%, partly because price inflation has been contributing its own to government coffers. Decisions had to be taken at a point in time, however, and I can understand that. 

* The latest macroeconomic indicators show a significant improvement over what obtained earlier, yet the daily-lived experience of many people may be telling a different story, and the Prime Minister himself seems to agree with that. Does this then make the case for a redefinition of the direction and scope of the reform agenda? 

-- On the economic front, things are going better if you look at growth rates. How growth is distributed is quite another matter. This has to do with the inclusiveness of the growth process.

If you look at the statistics, employees in the financial sector happen to be the most highly paid. But only a small fraction, some 10,000 out of a total workforce of 550,000, is engaged in that sector. The construction sector is another sector of high earnings. But how many are there like these? Not many, unfortunately. These examples show that the benefits of growth are not widespread and evenly distributed across the board. Indeed, this may not happen so easily because similar other sectors claiming identical levels of skills and paying up good remunerations, may not be easy to find and groom up in the circumstances in which the economy finds itself currently.

Now, some other people were just eking out a decent living in other sectors before the successive onslaughts of inflation/depreciation on them. They have become more marginalised due to the persistence of these factors. Others had aspirations to work hard and climb up the economic ladder, which I consider as legitimate. They have been frustrated by these factors and it is a good sign that the Prime Minister has such people in mind and is not overwhelmed by the figures of growth simply.

You have to bring the maximum numbers in the fold, if not today, then tomorrow and you should chart a course for achieving it on many fronts in matters like skill transfer, real education reform, search for new export product markets with high value addition, etc. There’s plenty of action that can be taken to carry on with growth without showing the more vulnerable persons the exit door.

This situation clearly means that true economic reform should not allow the situation to drift in this direction. As I said before, it is always possible to carry out repairs in economics. Reform can be re-orientated, recalling that the economic agenda comes to an end where the social agenda is not a well thought-out part of it.  

* The “India Shining” proposition was rejected in 2004 by the Indian electorate, which felt that the reform agenda was undertaken as if the vast majority of Indians did not matter. Here in Mauritius, the perceived tax bias in favour of those who are not so much in need as against those who have to fork out every possible rupee on tax has created ripples in many quarters. Is this kind of bias out of touch with reality?  

-- Governments are in the habit of getting dazzled with what they see on the face of it. They allow themselves to be carried away by a few examples of high achievement. In the case of India, the BJP government was out of touch with the deep rumblings that were going on at the grassroots level while an urban elite was capturing global IT, ICT, BPO and KPO markets, cut off from the harsh realities of daily rural life. For the government, it could hardly have imagined that India could have captured those heights. Unaware of the scale of suicides small farmers were becoming regular victims of due to persistent economic distress, the government felt confident enough to face the electorate, confident that it could but win given India’s global breakthrough. A stalwart of the stature and experience of Shri Atal Beehari Vajpaye could not sense that the ‘India Shining’ campaign of the BJP could be offensive to those who were being left out of the economic equation.

The Mauritius Times constantly advocated that there was enough reason to justly collect more government revenues from the huge windfall gains arising from transformation of land use, in the IRS projects, for instance, so as not to have to press too hard by way of taxation on the less well-off citizens compared to the property developers. I believe this is a fair argument.

The government may have its own reasons why it did not choose to reduce the tax pressure as suggested. Once the public start making comparisons, however, on the differential effort they are made to put up compared to property developers, they will ask why the others are getting off so lightly. As the prevailing inflation and the current resumption of currency depreciation start taking a further toll on the purchasing power of ordinary citizens, questions will be asked on one of the canons of taxation, notably that a fair tax system should raise tax on the principle of ability to pay. The question is: which of the political parties is not sufficiently beholden to large wealth owners as to make this issue part of its electoral campaign as the Congress Party did against the BJP in India and won the elections? 

* MMM leader Paul Bérenger had expressed his disappointment with the private sector during the preceding government’s tenure for failing to walk the talk despite the generous financial and monetary concessions extended to them by his government. Will Rama Sithanen’s 15% corporate tax succeed where Paul Bérenger’s concessionsfailed? 

-- The private sector is driven primarily by the profit motive. In the process it creates jobs. It does not create the jobs first and deal with the profit later. It knows its priority. This is how it is the world over in market economies like ours. The private sector does not create jobs for their own sake as governments would have wished so as to get into the favours of voters. In its profit maximization drive, the private sector takes up, in fact fights to get, all incentives governments are prepared to give it, at times pleading economic distress or threatening to lay off in no uncertain terms so as to get to the incentives. In deep-rooted capitalist systems like the US, this is called “lobbying” and is by no means considered as bad practice.

Many lame ducks pass muster in this game only to find themselves unable to stand on their own feet once the dope is withdrawn or when a new level of inefficiency has caught up with them. Others fatten themselves and neither walk nor talk. Advantages are here to be taken. Governments cannot expect such as these to deliver on employment.

Governments are not always the best judge as to when concessions should or should not be given and if Mr Sithanen were to realise subsequently that the private sector did not actually deliver on the results, he would certainly not be the first or last policy maker to reckon with this fact. But he looked to me to be more like a perfectionist who was aligning individual and corporate taxpayers on a level with each other and getting past all the incongruities of the existing differentiated taxation existing before his last budget. In any event, he has done his part. It is for the beneficiaries to respond. Time will tell.  

* One paper has equated the Mauritius Employers’ Federation’s proposal (as contained in its memorandum to the Minister of Finance in connection with the 2008-09 Budget) for bringing up Income Tax threshold to a higher level to allow for more disposable income to Mauritian families with a call for « a new social pact ». Do we need one such pact in the present circumstances? 

-- Inflation tax and other taxes have actually squeezed out quite a good amount of the disposable incomes of families. This loss is partly restored by adjusting wages up. This means employers have to pay up to compensate for the loss during the annual adjustment exercise. The National Pay Council works out a formula for this compensation out of the pockets of employers. This is how the PRB also comes into play for the public sector employees, out of the pocket of taxpayers.

If the compensation is made in the name of a so-called social pact by raising the income exemption threshold, the government budget has to forgo revenues to compensate for the loss of purchasing power in the so-called social pact. The burden of compensating shifts accordingly from the employer to the taxpayer. Insofar as it is the taxpayer who is made to take up this role, there is no guarantee that the government will not have to identify other sources from which it will compensate itself for foregoing revenue at this point. Hopefully, the taxpayer will not be made to step into the shoes of the employers in the name of the pact.

The question is not so much whether we need a social pact at this stage; it is whether foreseeable improvements in the income exemption threshold for other evident reasons (e.g. higher cost of living) will be amalgamated with wage compensations in their own right. As I said earlier, one of the roles of taxation is to achieve a fair redistribution of incomes and wealth. 

* How do you, as a former Deputy Governor of the Bank of Mauritius, view the initiatives of the Central Bank and its Monetary Policy Committee with respect to the Repo Rate? Operators in the manufacturing have cried loud lately and one opposition leader has even alleged ministerial interference in the workings of the Bank in that regard. Is that possible ? 

-- Look, this is a delicate issue and I hope I will not become inelegant responding to your question. People have been asking questions as to what we are headed for. I consider your question to be fair in that context.

First, it goes to the credit of the government that it instituted the Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank in 2007, something that was provided for as from 2004 in the Bank of Mauritius Act. It took some time but the Committee is here. It’s a step forward because the previous Central Bank regime carried the risk that monetary policy decisions could become a one-man decision with the blessings of a politician in power, subserviently endorsed by a Board that would not want to take political risks by refusing to toe the line. You now have an explicit collective forum for taking independent decisions that impact directly on the country’s economic life and choices people make about money matters. Ministers can speak their mind to MPC members but the latter know that they should not be swayed except by facts.

It is too early to pass a judgement on the MPC’s track record. It has practically been here for only about a year. The work of such institutions is judged over longer stretches of time, 5-10 years. Initially, the MPC started raising interest rates once it was set up. The rupee which had been sinking since 2006, started appreciating around that time, propped up by IRS and other forex inflows. The prevailing interest rate in Mauritius should have been no stranger to this situation. The policy bias was then in favour of local savers.

In contrast, the last three decisions of the MPC have gone in the opposite direction, the central bank’s key interest rate coming down by 125 basis points. This has had the effect of bringing down local banks’ interest rates, both on deposits and lending. For example, banks’ interest rate on saving deposits which was at around 8.5% in July last year has now dropped to below 7% at the bank holding the largest amount of such deposits. Starting from 23rd April 2008 when the central bank last intervened on the forex market at above banks’ dealt rate for the dollar, sending an unmistakable signal to the market, the rupee has depreciated against the US dollar by 7% nullifying the effects of the previous appreciation of the rupee on consumers for whatever this appreciation is worth.

So, in the span of a short period, recently, the saving deposit interest rate has come down sharply and the rupee exchange rate is also trending down. Apparently, EPZ needed an interest rate relief for its borrowings due to the erstwhile currency appreciation, that has been reversed as from 23rd April. In fact, EPZ is getting a rupee depreciation as well as an interest rate ‘relief’. If you look at the figure of EPZ borrowings from banks, it is only Rs 7.6 billion out of banks’ total lending to all sectors of Rs 147.2 billion, hardly 5% of the total. The mountain was moved by a molehill.

The impact on savers of the fall in interest rates due to this policy is clear. Interest earned on Rs 100 of savings deposits is Rs 6.75 per annum, based on the rate published for the MCB last week. Due to inflation of 8.7%, the saver’s effective return is minus Rs 1.95 (Rs 6.75 less Rs 8.70). Tax of 15% on the interest earned of Rs 6.75 amounts to Rs 1.01, which further reduces the interest earned, now at a cumulative negative Rs 2.96. Due to these factors alone, the saver goes back home poorer with Rs 97.04 at the end of one year from out of his initial amount of Rs 100. This is without reckoning the loss in exchange value of the deposits due to currency depreciation, supposed to have been taken in by the inflation rate.

As you see, the MPC must be aware of consequences like this when taking interest rate decisions. But it must have given more weight to other considerations like staving off unwanted forex inflows, survival of EPZ enterprises and saving jobs. Currently, it is not easy to pick up forex from the market and speculation about the extent of depreciation has set in. Speculation may now be driving the exchange rate of the rupee.

But this is not exactly the reason the MPC is here for, isn’t it? The primary objective of the Bank of Mauritius is to keep a tab on inflation and you normally tighten interest rates if international inflation is threatening to visit you as well, if it is not your guest already! We should have patience: the MPC will become sharper with time and balance its views taking all factors into account. 

* Economist Eric Ng argues that the « monetary activism » of the Central Bank could impede « la relance économique par la fiscalité » ? Is he right ? 

-- In classic economic scenarios, the central bank does not toe the line of finance ministers when the latter are pursuing expansionary policies by granting all sorts of tax reliefs. Their role is to act as checks and balances in the system. The European Central Bank (ECB) has been successively repudiating calls from ministers to relax the interest rate. The ECB has an inflation objective and it has therefore constantly refused to answer the call.

If the central bank in Mauritius were to add fuel to a possible fire ignited by the Ministry (note that PRB and other upward wage adjustments are on the way) by lowering taxes aggressively, the two of them would be going in the same direction. He is right not to recommend this double jeopardy which is resorted to when an economy is heading towards extreme positions like recession, as it is currently the case in the US. 

* There is also the suggestion to bring down the rate of the TVA to help the consumer during these diifcult times. Is this feasible ? 

-- I would think twice about this. As I said earlier, the VAT is the current cash cow for government revenues. Why not remove other taxes that have been rather badly seen by the public? A reduction of VAT would be regressive as it would benefit more the large-income earner compared to the less well-off who should actually be the targets of policy action.

Moreover, the VAT is so politically sensitive that, if there were subsequently a case for raising it back to where it was, it would require considerable political manoeuvering. 

* To come back to the present government’s reform programme: will you say that the reform agenda adopted can set into motion a virtuous cycle of growth that would also provide the necessary bedrock for further development (in other sectors) and ensure a sustained upward curve for the economy? 

-- A reform process is continuous. The givens of today don’t always hold in a volatile global economy. Things like the Multifibre Agreement, Lome, etc., go away and you have to take new policies. You cannot capture all of this with your present mind. As things stand, you may even be caught napping by rising oil and food prices without an alternative recourse. Situations like this keep popping up and you have to rise to the occasion each time, constantly reforming the reform program.

A viable reform program is one like that of Singapore that keeps the economy branching out in new and highly remunerated real sectors. We will get to our bedrock when we reach this point. Economies like ours should become like predators, ever hunting for profitable grounds to do more and more business based on inherent skill or financial strength. We have to get to that sustainable skill base and financial clout in order to pull markets our way. We are not there. 

* Economic analysts argue that the Asian Tiger countries took care of their rural areas (meaning agriculture) first and that their subsequent high rates of growth owed in no small measure to prior massive state investments in human resource development. Have we in Mauritius got our priorities right? 

-- China and India followed different models of growth. Agriculture was prioritized by China while India placed initial emphasis on industry. India is still in the process of bringing more irrigation to farmers. Both of them gave prime position to technology. Both jumped on the global bandwagon when the opportunity came. A country like Singapore did not even have enough land for agriculture; so, it sharpened the intellect of its citizens as a way of going forward. You have to identify what your comparative advantages are and fight on.

The varied experiences of those successful countries shows that they had the basic ingredients, no matter which model they adopted when they had to become technology-based producers to the whole world. They were so good that they could adapt to virtually any line of production. Both India and China are in space technology today. You have to hit the sky to survive.

In our case, our classic education system has proved resilient enough to give us a start on neighbours. That’s good enough but comparisons don’t add to our plates. We have to reinvent our training and education if we want to serve the world in areas other than textiles, the hospitality industry, financial services and agro-industry. Like them, a top-bottom approach will fit better with the priorities we should have although we can keep recuperating those who have to rise from the bottom. I believe that, for us it is not a question of getting priorities right, it is on how quickly we can smoothe the disjointed decision-making structure at all possible levels, you name it, that raises a new problem each time you tackle one? 

* What do you anticipate Mauritius will look like in the next 15-20 years after the Tianlis and such other corporations and the IRS villas and their army of maids and gardeners would have dug their feet in Mauritian soil? How would you then feel: a stranger in your own country?  

-- Mauritius is completely different in nearly all material aspects today from what I knew it to be in my childhood. Extrapolating, I see it changing ever the more in the next 15-20 years and I am not perturbed. This is how things take their course.

There could be an army of maids and gardeners serving luxurious villas but they may probably be imported labour. If we make and adopt the right policy choices, we could become the metropolis of a expansive business hinterland. Then, it will not matter who your neighbour is. If we make the wrong policy choices, we may with some chance be in the future what Haiti is like today.

I am an optimist and I like to think that some day or other, we will hold at least one key global card in our hand for which we will become more or less indispensable. We have no choice than to open up and go for the right adventure. 


A viable reform program is one like that of Singapore that keeps the economy branching out in new and highly remunerated real sectors. We will get to our bedrock when we reach this point. Economies like ours should become like predators, ever hunting for profitable grounds to do more and more business based on inherent skill or financial strength. We have to get to that sustainable skill base and financial clout in order to pull markets our way. We are not there…”


“It goes to the credit of the government that it instituted the Monetary Policy Committee of the Central Bank in 2007, something that was provided for as from 2004 in the Bank of Mauritius Act. It took some time but the Committee is here. It’s a step forward because the previous Central Bank regime carried the risk that monetary policy decisions could become a one-man decision with the blessings of a politician in power, subserviently endorsed by a Board that would not want to take political risks by refusing to toe the line…”


“The VAT is the current cash cow for government revenues. Why not remove other taxes that have been rather badly seen by the public? A reduction of VAT would be regressive as it would benefit more the large-income earner compared to the less well-off who should actually be the targets of policy action. Moreover, the VAT is so politically sensitive that, if there were subsequently a case for raising it back to where it was, it would require considerable political manoeuvering…”


“Speculation may now be driving the exchange rate of the rupee. But this is not exactly the reason the MPC is here for, isn’t it? The primary objective of the Bank of Mauritius is to keep a tab on inflation and you normally tighten interest rates if international inflation is threatening to visit you as well, if it is not your guest already! We should have patience: the MPC will become sharper with time…”


The givens of today don’t always hold in a volatile global economy. Things like the Multifibre Agreement, Lome, etc., go away and you have to take new policies. You cannot capture all of this with your present mind. As things stand, you may even be caught napping by rising oil and food prices without an alternative recourse. Situations like this keep popping up and you have to rise to the occasion each time, constantly reforming the reform program…”


The main shortcoming of local budget policies so far relates to insufficient focus on the micro-management of its effects. Many people feel let down by a continuous loss of purchasing power due to rising prices which, you will recall, before the recent rise in prices of essential goods at the global level, were being fuelled by the rupee’s pronounced depreciation in 2006. The budget has to ensure that this process does not continue to sap the morale of the population…”


The private sector does not create jobs for their own sake as governments would have wished so as to get into the favours of voters. In its profit maximization drive, the private sector takes up, in fact fights to get, all incentives governments are prepared to give it, at times pleading economic distress or threatening to lay off in no uncertain terms so as to get to the incentives. In deep-rooted capitalist systems like the US, this is called “lobbying” and is by no means considered as bad practice…”


If you look at the statistics, employees in the financial sector happen to be the most highly paid. But only a small fraction, some 10,000 out of a total workforce of 550,000, is engaged in that sector. The construction sector is another sector of high earnings. But how many are there like these? Not many, unfortunately. These examples show that the benefits of growth are not widespread and evenly distributed across the board…”


As the prevailing inflation and the current resumption of currency depreciation start taking a further toll on the purchasing power of ordinary citizens, questions will be asked on one of the canons of taxation, notably that a fair tax system should raise tax on the principle of ability to pay. The question is: which of the political parties is not sufficiently beholden to large wealth owners as to make this issue part of its electoral campaign…”


The Mauritius Times constantly advocated that there was enough reason to justly collect more government revenues from the huge windfall gains arising from transformation of land use, in the IRS projects, for instance, so as not to have to press too hard by way of taxation on the less well-off citizens compared to the property developers. I believe this is a fair argument…”


Governments are not always the best judge as to when concessions should or should not be given and if Mr Sithanen were to realise subsequently that the private sector did not actually deliver on the results, he would certainly not be the first or last policy maker to reckon with this fact. But he looked to me to be more like a perfectionist who was aligning individual and corporate taxpayers on a level with each other and getting past all the incongruities of the existing differentiated taxation…

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